{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bed693d1-bf6f-478a-98c4-d932b22857a4", "symbol": "300741", "name": "Huabao Flavours & Fragrances Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.832, "architecture_energy": 58.836, "architecture_maturity": 76.237, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.71, "rotation_up": 26.5, "upward_expansion": 10.5, "deceleration": 57.95, "rotation_down": 54.68, "downward_expansion": 83.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.894667, 13.033455, 13.908745, 14.73282 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 13.28, "trend_reference": 15.900526, "distance_from_trend": -0.164808, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.552991, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.243434, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.979204, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.308455, "excess_performance": -0.315855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.164808, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093131, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.243434, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.173579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.249792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003218, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.308455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.265567, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 11559924, "relative_activity": 0.938584, "balance": 0.265567, "dry_up": 1.178102, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07191, "annualized_volatility": 0.303667, "from_high_reference": -0.368732, "from_low_reference": 0.105745 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.900526, "fair_value_reference": 17.552991, "structural_low": 12.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.003276, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": -0.009688, "regime_survival": 0.791667, "best_return": 0.220261, "worst_return": -0.143974, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.05328, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.075383, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.146975, "worst_return": -0.199037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.019484, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.081414, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.131742, "worst_return": -0.230681, "sufficient": true 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false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.045132, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.126422, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.121839, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.040911, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": 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14086621, "typical_volume": 11918631.2, "trend": 16.483107, "fair_value": 17.712679, "relative_strength": -29.739292, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.281682, "energy": 92.414716, "activity_lines": [ 12.878667, 13.44544, 14.540371, 15.386119 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 12.1, "volume": 14089636, "typical_volume": 11889061.7, "trend": 16.25893, "fair_value": 17.655523, "relative_strength": -30.628422, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.534663, "energy": 90.9909, "activity_lines": [ 12.544, 13.109273, 14.231195, 15.103338 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.31, "volume": 18303509, "typical_volume": 12285065.85, "trend": 16.074092, "fair_value": 17.60478, "relative_strength": -21.730627, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.853816, "energy": 70.523636, "activity_lines": [ 12.74, 13.058727, 14.061181, 14.913084 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.28, "volume": 11559924, "typical_volume": 12316351.15, "trend": 15.900526, "fair_value": 17.552991, "relative_strength": -24.979204, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.831921, "energy": 58.835948, "activity_lines": [ 12.894667, 13.033455, 13.908745, 14.73282 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }