{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bed69a48-ab86-44e7-8921-26a288a2a555", "symbol": "JK8", "name": "UOBAM FTSE China A50 Index ETF", "exchange": "SES", "country": "SG", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^STI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3c", "phase_label": "Stage 3C \u00b7 Breakdown watch", "transition": "stage_3_to_4_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 3 \u2192 4 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 11.476, "architecture_energy": 13.611, "architecture_maturity": 39.657, "architecture_confidence": 75.969, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.0, "rotation_up": 21.78, "upward_expansion": 42.63, "deceleration": 82.96, "rotation_down": 34.25, "downward_expansion": 31.96 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.5198, 2.533418, 2.547419, 2.524101 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 2.532, "trend_reference": 2.490367, "distance_from_trend": 0.016718, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.145075, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.180378, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.236452, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.061635, "excess_performance": -0.0932, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.016718, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012982, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.180378, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033352, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132365, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.123162, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.061635, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.774779, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 121630, "relative_activity": 0.807074, "balance": 0.774779, "dry_up": 1.256414, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033115, "annualized_volatility": 0.125998, "from_high_reference": -0.051685, "from_low_reference": 0.171832 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.490367, "fair_value_reference": 2.145075, "structural_low": 2.34, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.004903, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.019176, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.023585, "worst_return": -0.07907, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.017103, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063305, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.060986, "worst_return": -0.13913, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.023611, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.050136, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.113402, "worst_return": -0.121739, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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2.544786, 2.511753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 2.518, "volume": 87900, "typical_volume": 126742.5, "trend": 2.483575, "fair_value": 2.128917, "relative_strength": -7.368896, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.825537, "energy": 30.032245, "activity_lines": [ 2.5724, 2.579891, 2.546781, 2.514158 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2.539, "volume": 149718, "typical_volume": 132979.0, "trend": 2.486733, "fair_value": 2.132658, "relative_strength": -10.228536, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.193913, "energy": 20.525107, "activity_lines": [ 2.5566, 2.572836, 2.550119, 2.517733 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.46, "volume": 207086, "typical_volume": 139279.85, "trend": 2.487133, "fair_value": 2.135955, "relative_strength": -13.432539, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 8.265438, "energy": 17.810062, "activity_lines": [ 2.519067, 2.551745, 2.545243, 2.516009 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.562, "volume": 107983, "typical_volume": 139763.55, "trend": 2.489667, "fair_value": 2.139279, "relative_strength": -10.95323, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.815464, "energy": 22.225563, "activity_lines": [ 2.524867, 2.550764, 2.549681, 2.520839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.498, "volume": 320692, "typical_volume": 153052.95, "trend": 2.489767, "fair_value": 2.141755, "relative_strength": -13.558191, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 6.547765, "energy": 13.677069, "activity_lines": [ 2.514267, 2.538618, 2.547157, 2.521376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.532, "volume": 121630, "typical_volume": 150704.85, "trend": 2.490367, "fair_value": 2.145075, "relative_strength": -13.236452, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 11.475681, "energy": 13.610976, "activity_lines": [ 2.5198, 2.533418, 2.547419, 2.524101 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }