{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bed6ac64-84c7-45a9-98ec-156fcbbf8f89", "symbol": "NEXP3", "name": "Nexpe Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.961, "architecture_energy": 86.737, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 6.67, "rotation_up": 28.7, "upward_expansion": 21.52, "deceleration": 37.2, "rotation_down": 57.44, "downward_expansion": 94.86 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.388, 2.408545, 2.47281, 2.544301 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2.4, "trend_reference": 2.640667, "distance_from_trend": -0.091139, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 3.893013, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.383511, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.073833, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.160839, "excess_performance": -0.103791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.091139, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.080974, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.383511, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.006794, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.220738, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114863, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.160839, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.129032, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2400, "relative_activity": 0.276817, "balance": 0.129032, "dry_up": 0.152826, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.016346, "annualized_volatility": 0.144494, "from_high_reference": -0.384615, "from_low_reference": 0.021277 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.640667, "fair_value_reference": 3.893013, "structural_low": 2.35, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.019417, "positive_rate": 0.234043, "directional_follow_through": 0.723404, "median_excess_return": -0.034343, "regime_survival": 0.914894, "best_return": 0.322134, "worst_return": -0.61037, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.104854, "positive_rate": 0.066667, "directional_follow_through": 0.933333, "median_excess_return": -0.145392, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.5575, "worst_return": -0.575814, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.189235, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.245737, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.3625, "worst_return": -0.813953, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2022-05-13", "end": "2023-06-30", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.837722, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-07-07", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.047833, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.1354, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2024-10-11", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.223301, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.029885, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2024-11-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002227, 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2.712333, "fair_value": 4.010321, "relative_strength": -29.008157, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.347776, "energy": 91.493298, "activity_lines": [ 2.439333, 2.464364, 2.552143, 2.621032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.4, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 8980.0, "trend": 2.693, "fair_value": 3.98359, "relative_strength": -26.181805, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.886798, "energy": 91.000649, "activity_lines": [ 2.423333, 2.447091, 2.530714, 2.600882 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.38, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 8815.0, "trend": 2.675667, "fair_value": 3.954615, "relative_strength": -25.784659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.338688, "energy": 83.982827, "activity_lines": [ 2.406, 2.43, 2.50919, 2.580688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.37, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 8740.0, "trend": 2.658333, "fair_value": 3.917564, "relative_strength": -26.531281, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -78.805085, "energy": 88.041112, "activity_lines": [ 2.390667, 2.415091, 2.488571, 2.560968 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.4, "volume": 2400, "typical_volume": 8670.0, "trend": 2.640667, "fair_value": 3.893013, "relative_strength": -22.073833, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.960906, "energy": 86.736864, "activity_lines": [ 2.388, 2.408545, 2.47281, 2.544301 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }