{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bed82702-b7be-419f-98b9-ac3ab82c1afc", "symbol": "305050", "name": "Kim Kindex Kospi ETF", "exchange": "KSC", "country": "KR", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^KS11", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 94.807, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": -11.705, "architecture_energy": 29.73, "architecture_maturity": 56.358, "architecture_confidence": 93.097, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 47.38, "rotation_up": 14.07, "upward_expansion": 43.21, "deceleration": 87.28, "rotation_down": 53.64, "downward_expansion": 39.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 68494.0, 74466.909091, 76677.186254, 73432.310702 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 64830.0, "trend_reference": 68279.373698, "distance_from_trend": -0.050519, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36070.397787, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.797319, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.434097, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.233966, "excess_performance": 0.004137, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.050519, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.217793, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.797319, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.676932, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004341, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.009829, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.233966, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.772757, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22156, "relative_activity": 0.529287, "balance": 0.772757, "dry_up": 0.942384, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146324, "annualized_volatility": 0.463494, "from_high_reference": -0.33275, "from_low_reference": 1.060027 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 68279.373698, "fair_value_reference": 36070.397787, "structural_low": 52167.965536, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008754, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.005814, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.284592, "worst_return": -0.03702, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.019101, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.004126, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.280641, "worst_return": -0.056999, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.038322, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.015043, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.092531, "worst_return": -0.107103, "sufficient": 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"typical_volume": 41860.05, "trend": 68279.373698, "fair_value": 36070.397787, "relative_strength": 0.434097, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -11.704756, "energy": 29.729622, "activity_lines": [ 68494.0, 74466.909091, 76677.186254, 73432.310702 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }