{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bedc3ca8-6b16-414f-8011-442405deb00d", "symbol": "2834", "name": "Taiwan Business Bank, Ltd.", "exchange": "TAI", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 89.539, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 60.441, "architecture_energy": 47.884, "architecture_maturity": 66.653, "architecture_confidence": 61.473, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 49.38, "upward_expansion": 81.05, "deceleration": 68.05, "rotation_down": 26.89, "downward_expansion": 7.72 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.483407, 16.463782, 16.020337, 15.604296 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 16.299999, "trend_reference": 15.129489, "distance_from_trend": 0.077366, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 13.068106, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.247312, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -21.290529, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.152866, "excess_performance": -0.288506, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.077366, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041011, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.247312, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.088273, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.212905, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092759, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.152866, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.174163, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 150954858, "relative_activity": 0.79513, "balance": 3.174163, "dry_up": 1.212095, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.03812, "annualized_volatility": 0.163404, "from_high_reference": -0.043988, "from_low_reference": 0.199604 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.129489, "fair_value_reference": 13.068106, "structural_low": 13.587818, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.01067, "positive_rate": 0.558824, "directional_follow_through": 0.558824, "median_excess_return": -0.009551, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.114894, "worst_return": -0.122137, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.025157, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": 0.016303, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.184931, "worst_return": -0.015385, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.139743, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": 0.007184, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.251272, "worst_return": -0.041667, 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16.507363, 16.260313, 15.679547, 15.317097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.709345, "volume": 303078927, "typical_volume": 181446002.7, "trend": 15.021579, "fair_value": 12.993112, "relative_strength": -16.03717, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.887128, "energy": 62.298963, "activity_lines": [ 16.586932, 16.399696, 15.826443, 15.43023 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.5, "volume": 276664240, "typical_volume": 188588348.3, "trend": 15.080398, "fair_value": 13.030897, "relative_strength": -18.278385, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.215374, "energy": 55.51118, "activity_lines": [ 16.569176, 16.464293, 15.93941, 15.525612 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 16.299999, "volume": 150954858, "typical_volume": 189849394.6, "trend": 15.129489, "fair_value": 13.068106, "relative_strength": -21.290529, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.441382, "energy": 47.884491, "activity_lines": [ 16.483407, 16.463782, 16.020337, 15.604296 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }