{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bedf5c78-a166-41d7-beb0-5ddcc02d5705", "symbol": "RPID", "name": "Rapid Micro Biosystems Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.272, "architecture_energy": 31.153, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 79.418, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.18, "rotation_up": 27.31, "upward_expansion": 20.47, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 33.47, "downward_expansion": 59.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.955333, 1.913091, 1.981143, 2.20486 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.73, "trend_reference": 2.644, "distance_from_trend": -0.345688, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.969139, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.121443, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -48.769749, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.552972, "excess_performance": -0.740425, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.345688, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.175125, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.121443, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.511533, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.487697, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148392, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.552972, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.433189, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1863194, "relative_activity": 1.980074, "balance": 0.433189, "dry_up": 1.263828, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.16807, "annualized_volatility": 0.832732, "from_high_reference": -0.649798, "from_low_reference": 0.042169 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.644, "fair_value_reference": 1.969139, "structural_low": 1.66, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.014358, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.055266, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.240566, "worst_return": -0.298611, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015075, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.103033, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.482353, "worst_return": -0.313793, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.147429, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.276109, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.770548, "worst_return": -0.324138, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.198777, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.154386, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.238971, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.275229, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.24821, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 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"typical_volume": 930871.2, "trend": 2.793333, "fair_value": 1.943033, "relative_strength": -42.774416, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.366881, "energy": 61.196162, "activity_lines": [ 1.827333, 1.873091, 2.06619, 2.401355 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.07, "volume": 1257150, "typical_volume": 970362.75, "trend": 2.757333, "fair_value": 1.950021, "relative_strength": -38.966182, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.422303, "energy": 47.323248, "activity_lines": [ 1.921333, 1.891455, 2.039524, 2.354688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.99, "volume": 1264819, "typical_volume": 1009239.6, "trend": 2.724333, "fair_value": 1.956238, "relative_strength": -39.339466, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.224812, "energy": 35.506415, "activity_lines": [ 1.968, 1.905455, 2.016, 2.305183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.13, "volume": 371743, "typical_volume": 932986.45, "trend": 2.690667, "fair_value": 1.963995, "relative_strength": -34.666237, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.850072, "energy": 27.085435, "activity_lines": [ 2.042667, 1.946364, 2.015952, 2.266839 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.73, "volume": 1863194, "typical_volume": 940971.9, "trend": 2.644, "fair_value": 1.969139, "relative_strength": -48.769749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.271525, "energy": 31.153175, "activity_lines": [ 1.955333, 1.913091, 1.981143, 2.20486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }