{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bee95b3f-5408-406f-83ac-e8c3137cb578", "symbol": "000957", "name": "Zhongtong Bus Holding Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -39.312, "architecture_energy": 24.791, "architecture_maturity": 69.405, "architecture_confidence": 81.614, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.53, "rotation_up": 26.9, "upward_expansion": 15.82, "deceleration": 46.66, "rotation_down": 26.93, "downward_expansion": 61.16 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.031333, 9.893283, 10.28675, 10.594913 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.2, "trend_reference": 10.96389, "distance_from_trend": -0.069673, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.517118, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.030153, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.633526, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.117647, "excess_performance": -0.125047, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.069673, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.041585, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.030153, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.163599, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.116335, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.032787, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.117647, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.456499, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 44237898, "relative_activity": 0.698348, "balance": 0.456499, "dry_up": 0.785892, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.070488, "annualized_volatility": 0.306093, "from_high_reference": -0.21075, "from_low_reference": 0.142217 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.96389, "fair_value_reference": 10.517118, "structural_low": 8.93, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.014944, "positive_rate": 0.56, "directional_follow_through": 0.44, "median_excess_return": 0.01646, "regime_survival": 0.76, "best_return": 0.627907, "worst_return": -0.123026, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.051675, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.00186, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 3.264, "worst_return": -0.173585, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.05838, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.113258, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 1.944, "worst_return": -0.211321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"activity_lines": [ 9.804038, 10.205346, 10.761624, 10.992232 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.27, "volume": 33902761, "typical_volume": 68236674.05, "trend": 11.144223, "fair_value": 10.554418, "relative_strength": -25.787126, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.039559, "energy": 81.301961, "activity_lines": [ 9.592925, 9.955224, 10.589925, 10.867551 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.72, "volume": 49245420, "typical_volume": 68226419.9, "trend": 11.093223, "fair_value": 10.55001, "relative_strength": -13.801096, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.587161, "energy": 70.69856, "activity_lines": [ 9.578478, 9.835284, 10.473227, 10.775666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.76, "volume": 46815793, "typical_volume": 65915640.6, "trend": 11.03389, "fair_value": 10.536823, "relative_strength": -13.224078, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.848616, "energy": 51.683539, "activity_lines": [ 9.626936, 9.763345, 10.371766, 10.689651 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.37, "volume": 58835063, "typical_volume": 65697599.95, "trend": 11.004556, "fair_value": 10.524262, "relative_strength": -5.947363, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.44488, "energy": 37.485864, "activity_lines": [ 9.89314, 9.836677, 10.335353, 10.64682 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.2, "volume": 44237898, "typical_volume": 63346531.35, "trend": 10.96389, "fair_value": 10.517118, "relative_strength": -11.633526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.31207, "energy": 24.79149, "activity_lines": [ 10.031333, 9.893283, 10.28675, 10.594913 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }