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Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.958, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 37.837, "architecture_energy": 20.095, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 93.618, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.4, "rotation_up": 27.76, "upward_expansion": 56.55, "deceleration": 87.9, "rotation_down": 30.95, "downward_expansion": 20.22 }, "activity_lines": [ 5963.333333, 6155.950542, 6044.209804, 5574.153388 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6440.0, "trend_reference": 4808.525602, "distance_from_trend": 0.339288, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1559.492382, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.129549, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 42.950256, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 1.420227, "excess_performance": 0.978855, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.339288, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.398809, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.129549, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.431313, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.429503, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.505902, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 1.420227, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.124729, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2825056, "relative_activity": 0.551709, "balance": 1.124729, "dry_up": 0.692807, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.170775, "annualized_volatility": 0.68333, "from_high_reference": -0.160778, "from_low_reference": 4.84797 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4808.525602, "fair_value_reference": 1559.492382, 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"close": 6100.0, "volume": 3135243, "typical_volume": 5306721.05, "trend": 4667.93912, "fair_value": 1519.394044, "relative_strength": 42.84449, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 28.879106, "energy": 21.806361, "activity_lines": [ 5801.0, 6115.935369, 5963.089753, 5459.82688 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 6440.0, "volume": 2825056, "typical_volume": 5120555.9, "trend": 4808.525602, "fair_value": 1559.492382, "relative_strength": 42.950256, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.836758, "energy": 20.094929, "activity_lines": [ 5963.333333, 6155.950542, 6044.209804, 5574.153388 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }