{ "ticker": { "uuid": "beefc9e9-87cb-4095-8cce-259baa1fd73e", "symbol": "5498", "name": "Key Ware Electronics Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 69.997, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.85, "architecture_energy": 67.928, "architecture_maturity": 16.056, "architecture_confidence": 89.079, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.05, "rotation_up": 10.76, "upward_expansion": 15.22, "deceleration": 37.84, "rotation_down": 69.19, "downward_expansion": 88.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 47.96, 51.359091, 57.447381, 59.322258 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 51.799999, "trend_reference": 60.991667, "distance_from_trend": -0.150704, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 23.727288, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.18314, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.970074, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.070018, "excess_performance": -0.51139, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.150704, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.127144, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.18314, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -1.353283, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.159701, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.640354, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070018, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.498831, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14024276, "relative_activity": 0.347614, "balance": 0.498831, "dry_up": 0.267065, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.180502, "annualized_volatility": 0.65321, "from_high_reference": -0.405963, "from_low_reference": 1.96675 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.991667, "fair_value_reference": 23.727288, "structural_low": 37.599998, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.020365, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.615385, "median_excess_return": -0.025171, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.475972, "worst_return": -0.185185, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.046078, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.038926, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 1.102703, "worst_return": -0.251799, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.002888, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054384, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.593577, "worst_return": -0.334532, "sufficient": true }, { 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"regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.570101, "energy": 11.774581, "activity_lines": [ 61.34, 63.303637, 64.845715, 63.684732 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 49.049999, "volume": 12663316, "typical_volume": 49018830.6, "trend": 60.978334, "fair_value": 22.817248, "relative_strength": -12.832329, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -34.029807, "energy": 40.817086, "activity_lines": [ 56.676666, 60.365455, 63.369524, 62.95742 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 45.75, "volume": 9255242, "typical_volume": 46369538.5, "trend": 61.273334, "fair_value": 23.036667, "relative_strength": -21.053784, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -49.669085, "energy": 62.399562, "activity_lines": [ 52.27, 57.244546, 61.650238, 61.974947 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 41.950001, "volume": 10596496, "typical_volume": 45184487.4, "trend": 61.121667, "fair_value": 23.232351, "relative_strength": -27.107886, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.875663, "energy": 79.444019, "activity_lines": [ 48.02, 53.882727, 59.642619, 60.72828 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.5, "volume": 9222234, "typical_volume": 41131595.25, "trend": 60.971667, "fair_value": 23.468775, "relative_strength": -18.156689, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.744553, "energy": 75.126927, "activity_lines": [ 47.023334, 52.163636, 58.356191, 59.913979 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 51.799999, "volume": 14024276, "typical_volume": 40344389.9, "trend": 60.991667, "fair_value": 23.727288, "relative_strength": -15.970074, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.850406, "energy": 67.928207, "activity_lines": [ 47.96, 51.359091, 57.447381, 59.322258 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }