{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bef0dbb9-47ff-45e9-8b40-31d1c88b54fe", "symbol": "2284", "name": "Modern Mills for Food Products", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 30.609, "architecture_energy": 17.557, "architecture_maturity": 30.221, "architecture_confidence": 88.958, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.25, "rotation_up": 27.81, "upward_expansion": 42.2, "deceleration": 82.14, "rotation_down": 33.85, "downward_expansion": 33.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 28.29242, 28.393806, 28.454311, 28.248311 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 29.120001, "trend_reference": 27.801926, "distance_from_trend": 0.047409, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 34.986549, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.16768, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.78167, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.11621, "excess_performance": 0.14804, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.047409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014203, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.16768, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.04105, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.017817, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067253, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.11621, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.608848, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1043498, "relative_activity": 2.731316, "balance": 2.608848, "dry_up": 1.298294, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028212, "annualized_volatility": 0.158236, "from_high_reference": -0.155655, "from_low_reference": 0.211245 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 27.801926, "fair_value_reference": 34.986549, "structural_low": 24.041378, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077367, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075949, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063361, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.096775, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", 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"trend": 27.688677, "fair_value": 35.091576, "relative_strength": -3.39362, "stage": 4, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": -4.375225, "energy": 21.602875, "activity_lines": [ 27.891482, 28.299925, 28.403443, 28.120921 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 28.24988, "volume": 484174, "typical_volume": 345393.9, "trend": 27.706661, "fair_value": 35.035033, "relative_strength": 0.955672, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 2.53936, "energy": 21.681058, "activity_lines": [ 27.921927, 28.269126, 28.388038, 28.157128 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 29.120001, "volume": 1043498, "typical_volume": 382049.5, "trend": 27.801926, "fair_value": 34.986549, "relative_strength": 1.78167, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.609049, "energy": 17.556643, "activity_lines": [ 28.29242, 28.393806, 28.454311, 28.248311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }