{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bef3a691-7f50-409c-aa36-8d91eb61ab8c", "symbol": "IPI", "name": "Intrepid Potash Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -52.91, "architecture_energy": 31.253, "architecture_maturity": 14.016, "architecture_confidence": 89.643, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 31.05, "rotation_up": 21.53, "upward_expansion": 3.47, "deceleration": 51.28, "rotation_down": 47.39, "downward_expansion": 76.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 34.396667, 34.419818, 35.745952, 36.636473 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 34.85, "trend_reference": 36.922333, "distance_from_trend": -0.056127, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.921923, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.248123, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.910771, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.059915, "excess_performance": -0.06571, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.056127, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.075732, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.248123, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.158989, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.059108, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.076157, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059915, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94093, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1099703, "relative_activity": 0.903187, "balance": 0.94093, "dry_up": 0.716249, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100966, "annualized_volatility": 0.575621, "from_high_reference": -0.307708, "from_low_reference": 0.545455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 36.922333, "fair_value_reference": 27.921923, "structural_low": 31.555, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.047217, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.380952, "median_excess_return": -0.0104, "regime_survival": 0.809524, "best_return": 0.171004, "worst_return": -0.309751, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.065914, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.020296, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.296367, "worst_return": -0.366253, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.057314, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.054979, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.353261, "worst_return": -0.228197, "sufficient": false }, { 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.245918, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.197151, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.003552, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.060722, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.205072, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": 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"relative_strength": -4.809396, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.582866, "energy": 44.911268, "activity_lines": [ 34.481333, 35.570727, 37.167143, 37.193462 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 34.2, "volume": 849272, "typical_volume": 1512626.15, "trend": 36.382667, "fair_value": 27.787628, "relative_strength": -4.646369, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.116185, "energy": 40.552645, "activity_lines": [ 34.307333, 35.119636, 36.758476, 37.068301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.22, "volume": 670851, "typical_volume": 1431549.45, "trend": 36.574667, "fair_value": 27.831282, "relative_strength": -3.61873, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.093325, "energy": 33.114786, "activity_lines": [ 34.27, 34.737818, 36.364905, 36.928774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 33.96, "volume": 868536, "typical_volume": 1296509.8, "trend": 36.766, "fair_value": 27.875128, "relative_strength": -5.108015, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.178404, "energy": 35.410331, "activity_lines": [ 34.164, 34.447455, 35.986143, 36.760086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 34.85, "volume": 1099703, "typical_volume": 1217580.55, "trend": 36.922333, "fair_value": 27.921923, "relative_strength": -5.910771, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.909652, "energy": 31.253066, "activity_lines": [ 34.396667, 34.419818, 35.745952, 36.636473 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }