{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bef50ad2-c192-4513-9624-dd7de6691433", "symbol": "MODERN", "name": "Modernform Group Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 48.359, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 29.082, "architecture_energy": 16.148, "architecture_maturity": 36.2, "architecture_confidence": 71.66, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.72, "rotation_up": 23.8, "upward_expansion": 53.78, "deceleration": 88.68, "rotation_down": 30.03, "downward_expansion": 19.78 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.018667, 2.028364, 2.025351, 2.003896 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 2.02, "trend_reference": 1.97091, "distance_from_trend": 0.024907, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.031521, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.005671, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.232914, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.084631, "excess_performance": -0.107694, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024907, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.000874, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.005671, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.015143, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.132329, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005145, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.084631, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.642142, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 258500, "relative_activity": 1.245513, "balance": 0.642142, "dry_up": 0.980872, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027037, "annualized_volatility": 0.112484, "from_high_reference": -0.103611, "from_low_reference": 0.097826 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.97091, "fair_value_reference": 2.031521, "structural_low": 1.84, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.013055, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.002215, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.044444, "worst_return": -0.139535, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.050479, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.069689, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.007779, "worst_return": -0.24031, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.049653, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.056604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.013055, "worst_return": -0.141666, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.188702, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034782, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026548, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074074, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.005025, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", 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"relative_strength": -15.262662, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 53.466562, "energy": 34.888811, "activity_lines": [ 2.041333, 2.039636, 2.016984, 1.991605 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.02, "volume": 96400, "typical_volume": 200345.0, "trend": 1.972531, "fair_value": 2.038864, "relative_strength": -15.7731, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 40.580573, "energy": 26.931459, "activity_lines": [ 2.033333, 2.037091, 2.020159, 1.994566 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.04, "volume": 228400, "typical_volume": 193135.0, "trend": 1.972243, "fair_value": 2.036687, "relative_strength": -14.770881, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.499611, "energy": 21.281614, "activity_lines": [ 2.033333, 2.038182, 2.024488, 1.998919 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.0, "volume": 231000, "typical_volume": 199070.0, "trend": 1.970622, "fair_value": 2.03404, "relative_strength": -15.078613, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 30.975628, "energy": 18.654566, "activity_lines": [ 2.02, 2.031273, 2.024162, 2.00071 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.02, "volume": 258500, "typical_volume": 207545.0, "trend": 1.97091, "fair_value": 2.031521, "relative_strength": -13.232914, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.081996, "energy": 16.147838, "activity_lines": [ 2.018667, 2.028364, 2.025351, 2.003896 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }