{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf05192d-4f9b-453a-9211-730a0901401c", "symbol": "600531", "name": "Henan Yuguang Gold&Lead Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 50.994, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.143, "architecture_energy": 61.916, "architecture_maturity": 9.02, "architecture_confidence": 73.195, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.03, "rotation_up": 13.07, "upward_expansion": 15.73, "deceleration": 34.95, "rotation_down": 67.33, "downward_expansion": 86.73 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.270667, 12.815433, 13.344919, 13.810488 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.58, "trend_reference": 14.489281, "distance_from_trend": -0.062755, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.646677, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.570546, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 4.722438, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.391304, "excess_performance": -0.3481, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.062755, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036652, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.570546, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.421287, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.047224, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.225565, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.391304, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.712475, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 307922517, "relative_activity": 1.174389, "balance": 0.712475, "dry_up": 0.954442, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.130411, "annualized_volatility": 0.764157, "from_high_reference": -0.452198, "from_low_reference": 0.626347 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.489281, "fair_value_reference": 8.646677, "structural_low": 10.58, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.039472, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.059855, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.253188, "worst_return": -0.165756, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.05356, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001221, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.264117, "worst_return": -0.032347, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.10274, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.084684, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.411657, "worst_return": -0.023043, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"fair_value": 8.564484, "relative_strength": -9.048949, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.718284, "energy": 61.525528, "activity_lines": [ 12.452593, 12.985375, 13.555808, 14.043449 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 11.67, "volume": 179748355, "typical_volume": 259378016.6, "trend": 14.428281, "fair_value": 8.599125, "relative_strength": -6.901127, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.811785, "energy": 69.907616, "activity_lines": [ 11.910005, 12.706313, 13.35053, 13.865216 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.58, "volume": 307922517, "typical_volume": 262198152.35, "trend": 14.489281, "fair_value": 8.646677, "relative_strength": 4.722438, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.142947, "energy": 61.916025, "activity_lines": [ 12.270667, 12.815433, 13.344919, 13.810488 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }