{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf091582-a2c4-43a0-b7b1-38403e5b0800", "symbol": "4433", "name": "Singtex Industrial Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1a", "phase_label": "Stage 1A \u00b7 Bottoming", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.194, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -51.322, "architecture_energy": 35.444, "architecture_maturity": 16.482, "architecture_confidence": 90.233, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.9, "rotation_up": 15.63, "upward_expansion": 7.11, "deceleration": 41.66, "rotation_down": 59.51, "downward_expansion": 80.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.533334, 19.697384, 19.730178, 19.805894 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 19.450001, "trend_reference": 20.072846, "distance_from_trend": -0.031029, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 24.286555, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.199145, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -32.151343, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.070029, "excess_performance": -0.511401, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.031029, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000153, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.199145, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019561, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.321513, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.055756, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.070029, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.734376, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 75810, "relative_activity": 0.458336, "balance": 0.734376, "dry_up": 0.413673, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04251, "annualized_volatility": 0.210556, "from_high_reference": -0.161689, "from_low_reference": 0.036186 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 20.072846, "fair_value_reference": 24.286555, "structural_low": 18.770755, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": -0.007292, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.019411, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.283305, "worst_return": -0.096774, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.027144, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.080952, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.166667, "worst_return": -0.157886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.059748, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.164178, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.111073, 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"modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.231301, "energy": 18.585053, "activity_lines": [ 19.738585, 19.801595, 19.777745, 19.87444 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.6, "volume": 39548, "typical_volume": 168169.3, "trend": 20.059733, "fair_value": 24.340737, "relative_strength": -30.328081, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.487509, "energy": 25.951074, "activity_lines": [ 19.626667, 19.757238, 19.759562, 19.845231 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 19.450001, "volume": 75810, "typical_volume": 165402.8, "trend": 20.072846, "fair_value": 24.286555, "relative_strength": -32.151343, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -51.321923, "energy": 35.444322, "activity_lines": [ 19.533334, 19.697384, 19.730178, 19.805894 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }