{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf144034-a269-4c14-b544-5814714a9c8f", "symbol": "WSRIE", "name": "UBS MSCI World Socially Responsible UCITS ETF hEUR acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 81.085, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 68.591, "architecture_energy": 49.508, "architecture_maturity": 63.332, "architecture_confidence": 68.559, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.75, "rotation_up": 44.4, "upward_expansion": 70.04, "deceleration": 85.47, "rotation_down": 27.75, "downward_expansion": 20.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.626133, 18.647309, 18.37639, 17.996701 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 19.007999, "trend_reference": 17.6138, "distance_from_trend": 0.079154, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.329295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.239979, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -5.336371, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.114969, "excess_performance": -0.055922, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079154, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.033589, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.239979, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031893, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.053364, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.003156, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.114969, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.292902, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1772, "relative_activity": 0.080184, "balance": 2.292902, "dry_up": 0.565323, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.019579, "annualized_volatility": 0.141299, "from_high_reference": -0.004608, "from_low_reference": 0.212864 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.6138, "fair_value_reference": 15.329295, "structural_low": 15.672, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.020615, "positive_rate": 0.636364, "directional_follow_through": 0.636364, "median_excess_return": -0.008216, "regime_survival": 0.272727, "best_return": 0.076923, "worst_return": -0.070171, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.046116, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.001403, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.116141, "worst_return": -0.12972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.093967, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.011191, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.19628, "worst_return": -0.232341, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.032546, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.057906, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.309342, "worst_return": -0.231749, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.035486, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019334, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139361, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.025, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.000989, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.015729, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.006071, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.020166, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.009936, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", 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18.325054, 17.746343, 17.51634 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.992001, "volume": 17, "typical_volume": 27666.95, "trend": 17.358667, "fair_value": 15.13359, "relative_strength": -4.774641, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.121075, "energy": 92.87077, "activity_lines": [ 18.726667, 18.489636, 17.901714, 17.625991 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.858, "volume": 12887, "typical_volume": 25096.45, "trend": 17.422133, "fair_value": 15.17391, "relative_strength": -4.880217, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.647189, "energy": 87.516697, "activity_lines": [ 18.806667, 18.599709, 18.034962, 17.722723 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.468, "volume": 12140, "typical_volume": 23658.45, "trend": 17.469467, "fair_value": 15.211551, "relative_strength": -5.33649, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.229304, "energy": 76.061029, "activity_lines": [ 18.713867, 18.610909, 18.122971, 17.790198 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.354, "volume": 22940, "typical_volume": 23007.45, "trend": 17.510267, "fair_value": 15.247897, "relative_strength": -5.568693, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.981264, "energy": 57.560819, "activity_lines": [ 18.5872, 18.590764, 18.194229, 17.847265 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.374001, "volume": 13121, "typical_volume": 23550.55, "trend": 17.555467, "fair_value": 15.285936, "relative_strength": -5.937524, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.710944, "energy": 43.523167, "activity_lines": [ 18.4932, 18.563964, 18.260048, 17.902989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.007999, "volume": 1772, "typical_volume": 22099.3, "trend": 17.6138, "fair_value": 15.329295, "relative_strength": -5.336371, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.591138, "energy": 49.508208, "activity_lines": [ 18.626133, 18.647309, 18.37639, 17.996701 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }