{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf18b3a4-eeef-4a4b-b84d-0afe6a3b4d6c", "symbol": "IPHA", "name": "Innate Pharma", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 88.205, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 31.327, "architecture_energy": 13.586, "architecture_maturity": 10.587, "architecture_confidence": 77.299, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 60.33, "rotation_up": 27.87, "upward_expansion": 52.82, "deceleration": 83.95, "rotation_down": 22.43, "downward_expansion": 16.49 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.752167, 1.765727, 1.739238, 1.687834 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 1.73, "trend_reference": 1.659017, "distance_from_trend": 0.042786, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.109211, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.179788, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -15.413513, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.011696, "excess_performance": -0.175758, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042786, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.010393, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.179788, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.184162, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.154135, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.210599, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011696, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 5.190856, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59810, "relative_activity": 0.24153, "balance": 5.190856, "dry_up": 0.15221, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.164931, "annualized_volatility": 0.76798, "from_high_reference": -0.339669, "from_low_reference": 0.478632 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.659017, "fair_value_reference": 2.109211, "structural_low": 1.17, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.033344, "positive_rate": 0.318182, "directional_follow_through": 0.318182, "median_excess_return": -0.039221, "regime_survival": 0.590909, "best_return": 0.234973, "worst_return": -0.2624, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.040545, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.222222, "median_excess_return": -0.115829, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.134021, "worst_return": -0.328104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.042483, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.14397, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.088041, "worst_return": -0.307143, 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.042198, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.119792, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-22", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.071429, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-29", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.074105, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026738, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061538, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.020492, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.96, "volume": 38014, "typical_volume": 60187.85, "trend": 3.08425, "fair_value": 3.701144, "relative_strength": -10.329126, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": 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1.654595, 1.647368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 1.8, "volume": 55663, "typical_volume": 258934.75, "trend": 1.6636, "fair_value": 2.15091, "relative_strength": -13.76721, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 24.34255, "energy": 17.32537, "activity_lines": [ 1.788, 1.781091, 1.67319, 1.655974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.7925, "volume": 38676, "typical_volume": 256223.4, "trend": 1.66135, "fair_value": 2.141695, "relative_strength": -15.2728, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.701645, "energy": 25.612949, "activity_lines": [ 1.794167, 1.790636, 1.690786, 1.66429 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.75, "volume": 35456, "typical_volume": 255622.1, "trend": 1.66135, "fair_value": 2.132972, "relative_strength": -13.166433, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.537768, "energy": 20.748815, "activity_lines": [ 1.780667, 1.786045, 1.703512, 1.67001 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.78, "volume": 14095, "typical_volume": 255565.65, "trend": 1.66235, "fair_value": 2.124916, "relative_strength": -9.647974, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.57965, "energy": 19.502189, "activity_lines": [ 1.777833, 1.780727, 1.718929, 1.677665 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.75, "volume": 41406, "typical_volume": 249754.25, "trend": 1.660017, "fair_value": 2.117288, "relative_strength": -10.850983, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.474941, "energy": 16.536711, "activity_lines": [ 1.767, 1.774318, 1.730631, 1.683319 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.73, "volume": 59810, "typical_volume": 247630.05, "trend": 1.659017, "fair_value": 2.109211, "relative_strength": -15.413513, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.327209, "energy": 13.585554, "activity_lines": [ 1.752167, 1.765727, 1.739238, 1.687834 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }