{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf1a0e4c-b036-46d3-a1fd-c44b6a12096d", "symbol": "1060", "name": "Damai Entertainment Holdings Limited", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -80.504, "architecture_energy": 63.236, "architecture_maturity": 75.942, "architecture_confidence": 88.637, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 16.59, "rotation_up": 19.92, "upward_expansion": 10.11, "deceleration": 44.23, "rotation_down": 63.79, "downward_expansion": 83.44 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.48, 0.494182, 0.503143, 0.525591 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.445, "trend_reference": 0.563333, "distance_from_trend": -0.210059, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.621859, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.284404, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -34.280175, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.315385, "excess_performance": -0.297679, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.210059, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.194663, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.284404, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.015252, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.342802, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.063376, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.315385, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.699852, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 238597673, "relative_activity": 0.500298, "balance": 0.699852, "dry_up": 0.883866, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.08038, "annualized_volatility": 0.382489, "from_high_reference": -0.587963, "from_low_reference": 0.011364 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.563333, "fair_value_reference": 0.621859, "structural_low": 0.44, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.014221, "positive_rate": 0.382353, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.000809, "regime_survival": 0.794118, "best_return": 0.452055, "worst_return": -0.433333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.064516, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": -0.055848, "regime_survival": 0.454545, "best_return": 0.506849, "worst_return": -0.41129, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.064516, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.083519, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.376623, "worst_return": -0.348837, "sufficient": true }, 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-52.597837, "energy": 37.440587, "activity_lines": [ 0.504667, 0.507727, 0.515905, 0.54043 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 0.49, "volume": 419617942, "typical_volume": 498877868.5, "trend": 0.575833, "fair_value": 0.622981, "relative_strength": -29.383404, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.69436, "energy": 42.711146, "activity_lines": [ 0.498667, 0.505, 0.511452, 0.534032 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 0.445, "volume": 238597673, "typical_volume": 476910653.75, "trend": 0.563333, "fair_value": 0.621859, "relative_strength": -34.280175, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.503971, "energy": 63.235704, "activity_lines": [ 0.48, 0.494182, 0.503143, 0.525591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }