{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf24a8fc-b784-4875-bfba-36a08e765632", "symbol": "002338", "name": "Changchun UP Optotech Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.987, "architecture_energy": 81.207, "architecture_maturity": 24.722, "architecture_confidence": 81.675, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.66, "rotation_up": 10.8, "upward_expansion": 21.83, "deceleration": 34.17, "rotation_down": 73.65, "downward_expansion": 90.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 41.312666, 45.611091, 50.595519, 51.868905 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 42.450001, "trend_reference": 53.667634, "distance_from_trend": -0.20902, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 41.270691, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.028575, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -23.749161, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.218893, "excess_performance": -0.226293, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.20902, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.032071, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.028575, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.523948, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.237492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.201987, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.218893, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.162849, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 37882291, "relative_activity": 1.288888, "balance": 1.162849, "dry_up": 1.340164, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.142411, "annualized_volatility": 0.602724, "from_high_reference": -0.395877, "from_low_reference": 0.162059 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 53.667634, "fair_value_reference": 41.270691, "structural_low": 36.529999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.118952, "positive_rate": 0.727273, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": 0.048712, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.502835, "worst_return": -0.215453, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.376237, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.19613, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.693932, "worst_return": -0.106687, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.660977, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.285861, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.781873, "worst_return": -0.087667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": 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"typical_volume": 26495517.0, "trend": 54.893952, "fair_value": 41.204743, "relative_strength": -29.94343, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.509915, "energy": 82.70346, "activity_lines": [ 45.216666, 49.178422, 52.90976, 53.590236 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 39.959999, "volume": 46868890, "typical_volume": 28142220.1, "trend": 54.196677, "fair_value": 41.224308, "relative_strength": -24.83353, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.913008, "energy": 84.105634, "activity_lines": [ 42.422666, 46.939636, 51.607877, 52.626755 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 42.450001, "volume": 37882291, "typical_volume": 29391446.15, "trend": 53.667634, "fair_value": 41.270691, "relative_strength": -23.749161, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.987072, "energy": 81.206673, "activity_lines": [ 41.312666, 45.611091, 50.595519, 51.868905 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }