{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf253597-17b8-4ff1-b55b-a46c00af50ed", "symbol": "ALMKT", "name": "Mauna Kea Technologies SA", "exchange": "PAR", "country": "FR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FCHI", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 54.593, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -39.446, "architecture_energy": 53.123, "architecture_maturity": 7.831, "architecture_confidence": 48.527, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 26.57, "rotation_up": 19.53, "upward_expansion": 19.26, "deceleration": 44.9, "rotation_down": 62.4, "downward_expansion": 58.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.1546, 0.15764, 0.164808, 0.16714 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 0.1514, "trend_reference": 0.163303, "distance_from_trend": -0.072891, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.255303, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.40698, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 7.398364, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.25124, "excess_performance": 0.197928, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.072891, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.197063, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.40698, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00173, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.073984, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.382051, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.25124, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.75339, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1115635, "relative_activity": 0.423515, "balance": 0.75339, "dry_up": 0.576793, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.07733, "annualized_volatility": 0.584934, "from_high_reference": -0.346004, "from_low_reference": 1.187861 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.163303, "fair_value_reference": 0.255303, "structural_low": 0.12, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.047718, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.022207, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": -0.044369, "worst_return": -0.155867, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.240969, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.323934, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.194396, "worst_return": -0.287543, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.028903, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.200294, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.208406, "worst_return": -0.266212, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"blue", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2024-06-28", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.12645, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-05", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.726098, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.335537, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.199199, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.161654, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.032308, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-22", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.218534, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-29", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.117978, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 0.563, "volume": 273880, "typical_volume": 864385.7, "trend": 0.617567, "fair_value": 0.881333, "relative_strength": -7.717519, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.469923, 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"Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.135145, "energy": 21.502983, "activity_lines": [ 0.16228, 0.167222, 0.17335, 0.166748 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 0.166, "volume": 796216, "typical_volume": 5000613.35, "trend": 0.15279, "fair_value": 0.267474, "relative_strength": 25.554251, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.859419, "energy": 19.439241, "activity_lines": [ 0.163013, 0.16628, 0.172473, 0.167805 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.159, "volume": 530043, "typical_volume": 4097799.4, "trend": 0.155693, "fair_value": 0.264384, "relative_strength": 19.617441, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -3.559995, "energy": 22.482119, "activity_lines": [ 0.16184, 0.164393, 0.170828, 0.168206 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.15, "volume": 3054430, "typical_volume": 3753205.2, "trend": 0.15831, "fair_value": 0.261326, "relative_strength": 11.941016, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": -16.099313, "energy": 26.782748, "activity_lines": [ 0.158333, 0.161153, 0.168359, 0.167838 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.157, "volume": 1377507, "typical_volume": 3022896.1, "trend": 0.16091, "fair_value": 0.258358, "relative_strength": 14.594493, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.397366, "energy": 34.100191, "activity_lines": [ 0.1574, 0.159731, 0.166724, 0.167754 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.1514, "volume": 1115635, "typical_volume": 2634227.4, "trend": 0.163303, "fair_value": 0.255303, "relative_strength": 7.398364, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -39.446492, "energy": 53.1229, "activity_lines": [ 0.1546, 0.15764, 0.164808, 0.16714 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }