{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf2615e0-8b1b-4a0c-a106-9ef98f87b579", "symbol": "4207", "name": "Taiwan Fructose Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "TWO", "country": "TW", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-14", "benchmark": "^TWII", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.679, "architecture_energy": 58.706, "architecture_maturity": 34.326, "architecture_confidence": 68.29, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.87, "rotation_up": 62.74, "upward_expansion": 81.76, "deceleration": 54.6, "rotation_down": 19.99, "downward_expansion": 8.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.153334, 19.954545, 19.580253, 19.248923 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.950001, "trend_reference": 18.807614, "distance_from_trend": 0.113911, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 15.824271, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.323916, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -17.919049, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.180366, "excess_performance": -0.261006, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.113911, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.035877, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.323916, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087503, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.17919, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.074521, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.180366, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.410012, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1770394, "relative_activity": 1.613965, "balance": 1.410012, "dry_up": 0.65662, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.033229, "annualized_volatility": 0.157625, "from_high_reference": -0.00475, "from_low_reference": 0.385647 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.807614, "fair_value_reference": 15.824271, "structural_low": 17.299999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 32, "median_return": 0.00542, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.008014, "regime_survival": 0.8125, "best_return": 0.137931, "worst_return": -0.142857, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.033258, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.001621, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.20339, "worst_return": -0.040531, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.015094, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.085043, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.3457, "worst_return": -0.050832, "sufficient": true 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19.641818, 19.145, 18.865137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.799999, "volume": 498987, "typical_volume": 1328602.2, "trend": 18.533054, "fair_value": 15.7069, "relative_strength": -20.114415, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.493299, "energy": 46.211145, "activity_lines": [ 19.75, 19.687272, 19.235845, 18.950378 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.65, "volume": 393425, "typical_volume": 1244970.6, "trend": 18.602691, "fair_value": 15.746666, "relative_strength": -19.228636, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.790568, "energy": 38.963394, "activity_lines": [ 19.73, 19.688182, 19.308673, 19.022439 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 19.85, "volume": 218236, "typical_volume": 1146665.4, "trend": 18.686819, "fair_value": 15.781574, "relative_strength": -19.927845, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.205356, "energy": 37.767138, "activity_lines": [ 19.753333, 19.724545, 19.395296, 19.102911 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-14", "close": 20.950001, "volume": 1770394, "typical_volume": 1096921.85, "trend": 18.807614, "fair_value": 15.824271, "relative_strength": -17.919049, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.678637, "energy": 58.706394, "activity_lines": [ 20.153334, 19.954545, 19.580253, 19.248923 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }