{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf275334-a6d3-40d1-adb2-3c2a94736f4b", "symbol": "002701", "name": "ORG Technology Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -30.825, "architecture_energy": 23.681, "architecture_maturity": 99.697, "architecture_confidence": 76.01, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.27, "rotation_up": 34.75, "upward_expansion": 21.82, "deceleration": 44.15, "rotation_down": 22.3, "downward_expansion": 55.82 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.789333, 4.676, 4.766911, 4.906518 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 4.84, "trend_reference": 5.141865, "distance_from_trend": -0.058707, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.895999, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.011438, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -14.163702, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.174061, "excess_performance": -0.181461, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.058707, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.077725, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.011438, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.099191, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.141637, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.104373, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.174061, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.78517, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 137292966, "relative_activity": 1.135261, "balance": 0.78517, "dry_up": 1.329761, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.057847, "annualized_volatility": 0.248941, "from_high_reference": -0.276532, "from_low_reference": 0.13615 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.141865, "fair_value_reference": 4.895999, "structural_low": 4.26, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.004227, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": 0.013064, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.092929, "worst_return": -0.087031, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.020501, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.027643, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.046511, "worst_return": -0.160784, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.018755, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": 0.060565, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.035047, "worst_return": -0.070737, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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"typical_volume": 116685674.6, "trend": 5.220198, "fair_value": 4.888692, "relative_strength": -15.739102, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.751768, "energy": 40.942697, "activity_lines": [ 4.593333, 4.584749, 4.769634, 4.946457 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.94, "volume": 168349781, "typical_volume": 119344847.2, "trend": 5.178865, "fair_value": 4.893124, "relative_strength": -8.351749, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.23974, "energy": 22.660656, "activity_lines": [ 4.73, 4.639765, 4.771987, 4.92838 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.84, "volume": 137292966, "typical_volume": 120935193.65, "trend": 5.141865, "fair_value": 4.895999, "relative_strength": -14.163702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -30.824537, "energy": 23.680829, "activity_lines": [ 4.789333, 4.676, 4.766911, 4.906518 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }