{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf2c4ff0-f61a-4c16-a0c9-ab8e3da70920", "symbol": "1471", "name": "Zhongmiao Holdings (Qingdao) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-09-25", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -50.621, "architecture_energy": 51.122, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.751, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.26, "rotation_up": 27.98, "upward_expansion": 26.29, "deceleration": 47.0, "rotation_down": 43.83, "downward_expansion": 67.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.962333, 8.766909, 9.112823, 10.842061 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.9, "trend_reference": 16.200122, "distance_from_trend": -0.388894, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 13.997109, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.292711, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.138354, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.750851, "excess_performance": -0.733145, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.388894, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.207152, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.292711, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.002031, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.381384, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.035491, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.750851, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.150313, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1200, "relative_activity": 0.036563, "balance": 1.150313, "dry_up": 0.465417, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.101243, "annualized_volatility": 1.607825, "from_high_reference": -0.798687, "from_low_reference": 0.287386 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 16.200122, "fair_value_reference": 13.997109, "structural_low": 7.69, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.022222, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.048865, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.044944, "worst_return": -0.080579, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.186869, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.221392, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.186869, "worst_return": -0.186869, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.008197, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.019197, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.083838, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-15", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.065236, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", 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9.475293, 13.157387 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-04", "close": 8.34, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 53710.0, "trend": 18.311929, "fair_value": 14.13235, "relative_strength": -50.837649, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.645993, "energy": 68.988712, "activity_lines": [ 8.445333, 8.596636, 9.311938, 12.490409 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-11", "close": 9.3, "volume": 51600, "typical_volume": 44320.0, "trend": 17.581994, "fair_value": 14.08842, "relative_strength": -43.067481, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.634313, "energy": 61.750039, "activity_lines": [ 8.733, 8.671273, 9.253971, 11.908994 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-18", "close": 8.05, "volume": 6000, "typical_volume": 41935.0, "trend": 16.905468, "fair_value": 14.034019, "relative_strength": -50.345509, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.780693, "energy": 69.523499, "activity_lines": [ 8.511, 8.538636, 9.087374, 11.294027 ] }, { "date": "2026-09-25", "close": 9.9, "volume": 1200, "typical_volume": 32820.0, "trend": 16.200122, "fair_value": 13.997109, "relative_strength": -38.138354, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.621347, "energy": 51.122163, "activity_lines": [ 8.962333, 8.766909, 9.112823, 10.842061 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }