{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf2c813d-c85b-40a1-8225-1d3beaea8aae", "symbol": "IBTG", "name": "ISHARES IBONDS DEC 2026 TERM TREASURY ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.511, "architecture_energy": 84.368, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 75.847, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.9, "rotation_up": 69.68, "upward_expansion": 91.84, "deceleration": 47.54, "rotation_down": 18.77, "downward_expansion": 18.51 }, "activity_lines": [ 22.819899, 22.806825, 22.784977, 22.758125 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 22.84, "trend_reference": 22.713681, "distance_from_trend": 0.005561, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.620884, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.056386, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.635003, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.010734, "excess_performance": -0.17672, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.005561, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005053, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.056386, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005244, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.11635, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040959, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.010734, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.015502, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4514726, "relative_activity": 1.981545, "balance": 7.015502, "dry_up": 1.119475, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.001159, "annualized_volatility": 0.005682, "from_high_reference": -0.000438, "from_low_reference": 0.032278 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 22.713681, "fair_value_reference": 21.620884, "structural_low": 22.592502, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.002817, "positive_rate": 0.794118, "directional_follow_through": 0.794118, "median_excess_return": -0.005942, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.012292, "worst_return": -0.012422, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.010338, "positive_rate": 0.818182, "directional_follow_through": 0.818182, "median_excess_return": -0.076396, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.030251, "worst_return": -0.00972, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.018712, "positive_rate": 0.833333, "directional_follow_through": 0.833333, "median_excess_return": -0.136514, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.033894, "worst_return": -0.008504, 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 75.219745, "energy": 56.723393, "activity_lines": [ 22.79422, 22.791401, 22.769788, 22.740986 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 22.822309, "volume": 1640135, "typical_volume": 2133060.2, "trend": 22.703356, "fair_value": 21.603594, "relative_strength": -7.558045, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 79.630755, "energy": 66.723684, "activity_lines": [ 22.804366, 22.798145, 22.776914, 22.74931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 22.84, "volume": 4514726, "typical_volume": 2278386.55, "trend": 22.713681, "fair_value": 21.620884, "relative_strength": -11.635003, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.510809, "energy": 84.367984, "activity_lines": [ 22.819899, 22.806825, 22.784977, 22.758125 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }