{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf35b5b7-717f-4354-9120-fed814cf5600", "symbol": "AUSAUW", "name": "UBS MSCI Australia UCITS ETF AUD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.752, "architecture_energy": 96.822, "architecture_maturity": 20.681, "architecture_confidence": 65.062, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 4.03, "rotation_up": 86.9, "upward_expansion": 97.65, "deceleration": 41.84, "rotation_down": 8.17, "downward_expansion": 21.98 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.225334, 30.703364, 30.276429, 29.989011 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 32.025002, "trend_reference": 29.556667, "distance_from_trend": 0.083512, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.010933, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.185631, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.500805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.131026, "excess_performance": 0.048143, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.083512, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042343, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.185631, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054916, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.005008, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.030532, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.131026, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.332073, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2572, "relative_activity": 0.489462, "balance": 1.332073, "dry_up": 0.672392, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.015925, "annualized_volatility": 0.158654, "from_high_reference": -0.395419, "from_low_reference": 0.246352 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 29.556667, "fair_value_reference": 27.010933, "structural_low": 27.815001, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": 0.004207, "positive_rate": 0.521739, "directional_follow_through": 0.521739, "median_excess_return": -0.00482, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.04644, "worst_return": -0.099948, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.012706, "positive_rate": 0.3, "directional_follow_through": 0.3, "median_excess_return": -0.013384, "regime_survival": 0.3, "best_return": 0.098354, "worst_return": -0.12925, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.025252, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": 0.01275, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.128601, "worst_return": -0.163071, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 72.79846, "energy": 56.210233, "activity_lines": [ 30.121334, 29.956182, 29.808643, 29.590226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.674999, "volume": 1115, "typical_volume": 7569.5, "trend": 29.253333, "fair_value": 26.903273, "relative_strength": -3.415999, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 77.515546, "energy": 74.235525, "activity_lines": [ 30.326, 30.113727, 29.912405, 29.689365 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.264999, "volume": 3057, "typical_volume": 7356.45, "trend": 29.392167, "fair_value": 26.953722, "relative_strength": -1.603139, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.076567, "energy": 87.089809, "activity_lines": [ 30.699333, 30.356727, 30.064428, 29.81915 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.025002, "volume": 2572, "typical_volume": 5254.75, "trend": 29.556667, "fair_value": 27.010933, "relative_strength": -0.500805, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.752318, "energy": 96.822009, "activity_lines": [ 31.225334, 30.703364, 30.276429, 29.989011 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }