{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf36d62d-1473-42c1-b466-18c22a1f7570", "symbol": "IUHC", "name": "iShares S&P 500 Health Care Sector UCITS ETF USD (Acc)", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 85.885, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 76.627, "architecture_energy": 64.24, "architecture_maturity": 12.399, "architecture_confidence": 69.423, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.44, "rotation_up": 73.96, "upward_expansion": 86.03, "deceleration": 53.22, "rotation_down": 13.78, "downward_expansion": 10.36 }, "activity_lines": [ 13.1624, 13.0184, 12.623124, 12.456675 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 13.34, "trend_reference": 12.352, "distance_from_trend": 0.079987, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 11.401603, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.170011, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.219093, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.059908, "excess_performance": -0.022975, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.079987, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014844, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.170011, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.136278, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.002191, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.029465, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.059908, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.732092, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 209161, "relative_activity": 1.231616, "balance": 2.732092, "dry_up": 0.853008, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.028959, "annualized_volatility": 0.153248, "from_high_reference": -0.015062, "from_low_reference": 0.287893 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 12.352, "fair_value_reference": 11.401603, "structural_low": 11.43, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 28, "median_return": 0.003817, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.005957, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.066749, "worst_return": -0.090515, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.026101, "positive_rate": 0.272727, "directional_follow_through": 0.272727, "median_excess_return": -0.000667, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.104438, "worst_return": -0.083196, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.042218, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.009028, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.08654, "worst_return": -0.036604, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"energy": 76.40563, "activity_lines": [ 12.8448, 12.565891, 12.252752, 12.236129 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 13.106, "volume": 209410, "typical_volume": 174811.75, "trend": 12.2874, "fair_value": 11.348756, "relative_strength": -0.441255, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.056932, "energy": 88.279035, "activity_lines": [ 12.984267, 12.708582, 12.345371, 12.290486 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.124, "volume": 11260, "typical_volume": 170936.2, "trend": 12.3098, "fair_value": 11.366077, "relative_strength": -0.215882, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.643801, "energy": 86.511499, "activity_lines": [ 13.078667, 12.826764, 12.437733, 12.34446 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 13.038, "volume": 149622, "typical_volume": 171455.95, "trend": 12.328867, "fair_value": 11.383423, "relative_strength": -1.02528, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.09715, "energy": 71.696625, "activity_lines": [ 13.074933, 12.904618, 12.518333, 12.391441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.34, "volume": 209161, "typical_volume": 169826.45, "trend": 12.352, "fair_value": 11.401603, "relative_strength": -0.219093, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.626562, "energy": 64.239506, "activity_lines": [ 13.1624, 13.0184, 12.623124, 12.456675 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }