{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf37f66e-98d5-49d4-a025-b29ef7d8aeb7", "symbol": "IAM", "name": "Income Asset Management Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -73.905, "architecture_energy": 46.766, "architecture_maturity": 76.251, "architecture_confidence": 85.166, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.77, "rotation_up": 19.36, "upward_expansion": 7.15, "deceleration": 48.35, "rotation_down": 62.0, "downward_expansion": 78.15 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.017255, 0.017862, 0.018778 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.014, "trend_reference": 0.020933, "distance_from_trend": -0.33121, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.050725, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.724, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -50.698774, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.44, "excess_performance": -0.503706, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.33121, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.17801, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.724, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.039721, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.506988, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.14956, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.44, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.420295, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2606771, "relative_activity": 2.38302, "balance": 0.420295, "dry_up": 1.29119, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.192308, "annualized_volatility": 0.839129, "from_high_reference": -0.702128, "from_low_reference": 0.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.020933, "fair_value_reference": 0.050725, "structural_low": 0.014, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 41, "median_return": -0.037037, "positive_rate": 0.341463, "directional_follow_through": 0.560976, "median_excess_return": -0.046291, "regime_survival": 0.878049, "best_return": 0.517241, "worst_return": -0.392157, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.1, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.137594, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.809524, "worst_return": -0.571429, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.215374, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.251437, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.407407, "worst_return": -0.614286, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"teal", "start": "2024-05-10", "end": "2024-05-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061856, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-24", "end": "2024-06-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.010989, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-14", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027778, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.571429, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.030303, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.025641, 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"volume": 1868366, "typical_volume": 1096138.1, "trend": 0.0216, "fair_value": 0.051564, "relative_strength": -42.700071, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.2192, "energy": 35.307117, "activity_lines": [ 0.017867, 0.018036, 0.018286, 0.019269 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.014, "volume": 2606771, "typical_volume": 1093893.8, "trend": 0.020933, "fair_value": 0.050725, "relative_strength": -50.698774, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.905394, "energy": 46.766455, "activity_lines": [ 0.0164, 0.017255, 0.017862, 0.018778 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }