{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf3a2445-458a-4ad5-ae20-f9942ac3cc8c", "symbol": "PAM", "name": "Potter & Moore Plc", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.452, "architecture_energy": 22.148, "architecture_maturity": 11.658, "architecture_confidence": 75.187, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.48, "rotation_up": 19.31, "upward_expansion": 1.32, "deceleration": 51.2, "rotation_down": 40.25, "downward_expansion": 69.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.229544, 0.230435, 0.231217, 0.235886 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.235, "trend_reference": 0.245372, "distance_from_trend": -0.04227, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.276759, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.150886, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -20.019823, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.145455, "excess_performance": -0.19669, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.04227, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.081463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.150886, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054828, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.200198, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114422, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.145455, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.938349, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 492240, "relative_activity": 1.077708, "balance": 0.938349, "dry_up": 0.956892, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.111459, "annualized_volatility": 0.340424, "from_high_reference": -0.347222, "from_low_reference": 0.119048 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.245372, "fair_value_reference": 0.276759, "structural_low": 0.21, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.014085, "positive_rate": 0.384615, "directional_follow_through": 0.384615, "median_excess_return": 0.01684, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.48125, "worst_return": -0.159421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.01449, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": 0.057248, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.413797, "worst_return": -0.290324, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.062971, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.068381, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.504093, "worst_return": -0.233333, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.042255, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.114289, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.097561, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044046, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-17", "tenure": 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -36.409019, "energy": 18.350663, "activity_lines": [ 0.234106, 0.233587, 0.233804, 0.241667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.224378, "volume": 272665, "typical_volume": 423080.35, "trend": 0.251751, "fair_value": 0.278155, "relative_strength": -24.472377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.567551, "energy": 24.642194, "activity_lines": [ 0.231356, 0.231963, 0.23242, 0.239738 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.234133, "volume": 319597, "typical_volume": 431304.7, "trend": 0.249555, "fair_value": 0.277729, "relative_strength": -21.230842, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.251553, "energy": 16.216318, "activity_lines": [ 0.232232, 0.232123, 0.232278, 0.238602 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.2195, "volume": 663728, "typical_volume": 448359.5, "trend": 0.247038, "fair_value": 0.277179, "relative_strength": -25.990867, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -53.515255, "energy": 26.299814, "activity_lines": [ 0.227955, 0.229729, 0.230913, 0.236663 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.235, "volume": 492240, "typical_volume": 456747.05, "trend": 0.245372, "fair_value": 0.276759, "relative_strength": -20.019823, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.451911, "energy": 22.147817, "activity_lines": [ 0.229544, 0.230435, 0.231217, 0.235886 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }