{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf3b0f53-3d68-4ddc-a216-f1ae4dbc3302", "symbol": "A1OS34", "name": "A. O. Smith Corporation", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.995, "architecture_energy": 84.937, "architecture_maturity": 71.355, "architecture_confidence": 92.834, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.63, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 32.5, "deceleration": 43.0, "rotation_down": 53.67, "downward_expansion": 82.5 }, "activity_lines": [ 291.518512, 291.332517, 297.819058, 313.615363 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 292.029999, "trend_reference": 335.449702, "distance_from_trend": -0.129437, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 378.90382, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.229277, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -21.708643, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.243363, "excess_performance": -0.186315, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.129437, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.084806, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.229277, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054267, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.217086, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071485, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.243363, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.0, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.0, "dry_up": 0.0, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006777, "annualized_volatility": 0.225049, "from_high_reference": -0.243363, "from_low_reference": 0.004398 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 335.449702, "fair_value_reference": 378.90382, "structural_low": 290.751282, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 19, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.315789, "directional_follow_through": 0.315789, "median_excess_return": -0.006, "regime_survival": 0.789474, "best_return": 0.160069, "worst_return": -0.118964, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.003384, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.026711, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.131602, "worst_return": -0.203931, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006912, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.085645, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.357799, "worst_return": -0.14929, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.666527, "energy": 89.032993, "activity_lines": [ 290.751282, 291.521296, 302.646028, 319.815415 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 292.029999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.75, "trend": 338.536836, "fair_value": 379.249857, "relative_strength": -24.693914, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.332513, "energy": 88.564669, "activity_lines": [ 291.177521, 291.21627, 300.008905, 316.615804 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 292.029999, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 0.75, "trend": 335.449702, "fair_value": 378.90382, "relative_strength": -21.708643, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.995482, "energy": 84.937003, "activity_lines": [ 291.518512, 291.332517, 297.819058, 313.615363 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }