{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf3d2c92-ad35-442d-b76a-9e73af8a1af4", "symbol": "STA2", "name": "Stabilus SE", "exchange": "VIE", "country": "AT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^ATX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 86.103, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -49.444, "architecture_energy": 39.189, "architecture_maturity": 22.505, "architecture_confidence": 87.041, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 23.61, "rotation_up": 19.35, "upward_expansion": 7.35, "deceleration": 54.03, "rotation_down": 56.67, "downward_expansion": 78.35 }, "activity_lines": [ 15.472, 15.645818, 16.39419, 16.718976 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 17.139999, "trend_reference": 17.332041, "distance_from_trend": -0.01108, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 33.498293, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.488332, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -28.433259, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.128179, "excess_performance": -0.302426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01108, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.070463, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.488332, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008715, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.284333, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001365, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.128179, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.627685, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1524, "relative_activity": 1.112937, "balance": 1.627685, "dry_up": 1.403768, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079077, "annualized_volatility": 0.542154, "from_high_reference": -0.313299, "from_low_reference": 0.294562 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.332041, "fair_value_reference": 33.498293, "structural_low": 13.24, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": -0.011708, "positive_rate": 0.473684, "directional_follow_through": 0.526316, "median_excess_return": -0.033982, "regime_survival": 0.815789, "best_return": 0.182598, "worst_return": -0.221957, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.102123, "positive_rate": 0.307692, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": -0.132311, "regime_survival": 0.692308, "best_return": 0.124211, "worst_return": -0.284832, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.193429, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.857143, "median_excess_return": -0.285964, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.311765, "worst_return": -0.418871, "sufficient": true 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17.273381, 17.639491 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 15.86, "volume": 300, "typical_volume": 1610.65, "trend": 18.071743, "fair_value": 34.559545, "relative_strength": -37.894514, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.826577, "energy": 67.332557, "activity_lines": [ 16.229333, 16.94, 17.116095, 17.486843 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.66, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 1434.4, "trend": 17.935352, "fair_value": 34.349315, "relative_strength": -36.91093, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.087104, "energy": 73.695333, "activity_lines": [ 15.921333, 16.639636, 16.964, 17.331247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 16.16, "volume": 864, "typical_volume": 1440.6, "trend": 17.826764, "fair_value": 34.142879, "relative_strength": -32.683108, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.015501, "energy": 71.448251, "activity_lines": [ 15.946667, 16.456727, 16.879143, 17.216708 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 13.76, "volume": 900, "typical_volume": 1246.8, "trend": 17.63097, "fair_value": 33.929311, "relative_strength": -42.539721, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -86.605805, "energy": 81.426483, "activity_lines": [ 15.181333, 15.876364, 16.579048, 16.954336 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.28, "volume": 4401, "typical_volume": 1466.85, "trend": 17.437115, "fair_value": 33.69992, "relative_strength": -39.363357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.712401, "energy": 76.65773, "activity_lines": [ 14.806667, 15.469454, 16.345619, 16.738145 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 17.139999, "volume": 1524, "typical_volume": 1369.35, "trend": 17.332041, "fair_value": 33.498293, "relative_strength": -28.433259, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.44438, "energy": 39.189199, "activity_lines": [ 15.472, 15.645818, 16.39419, 16.718976 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }