{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf3d7d7b-14a8-40f0-a642-58adffb6a2ff", "symbol": "601166", "name": "Industrial Bank Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 63.948, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 16.593, "architecture_energy": 29.797, "architecture_maturity": 20.742, "architecture_confidence": 53.757, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.02, "rotation_up": 58.69, "upward_expansion": 38.88, "deceleration": 45.67, "rotation_down": 16.87, "downward_expansion": 18.55 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.341333, 17.95971, 17.804035, 17.912484 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 18.34, "trend_reference": 18.154612, "distance_from_trend": 0.010212, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 17.404511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.05375, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.851665, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.0102, "excess_performance": 0.053404, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010212, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044923, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.05375, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.042829, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038517, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.189082, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.0102, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.788468, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 444064465, "relative_activity": 1.177803, "balance": 1.788468, "dry_up": 1.498312, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.037916, "annualized_volatility": 0.192777, "from_high_reference": -0.188542, "from_low_reference": 0.094272 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.154612, "fair_value_reference": 17.404511, "structural_low": 16.76, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.011962, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.001923, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.189731, "worst_return": -0.107035, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.068878, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.136506, "worst_return": -0.071875, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.023422, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.045962, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.362555, "worst_return": -0.14834, "sufficient": true }, 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"deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.087079, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.13055, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.055396, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.063212, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.09095, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.01378, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.04329, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.000535, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.016305, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.02963, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-07-28", "close": 14.37563, "volume": 279814584, "typical_volume": 283239361.15, "trend": 13.877034, "fair_value": 14.722273, "relative_strength": 1.539508, "stage": 1, "regime": 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17.621871, 17.909983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 17.75, "volume": 535125939, "typical_volume": 350136353.1, "trend": 18.35044, "fair_value": 17.310833, "relative_strength": -4.388984, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -55.146696, "energy": 45.674166, "activity_lines": [ 17.330667, 17.482441, 17.609805, 17.866303 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.33, "volume": 652315767, "typical_volume": 359237188.0, "trend": 18.278935, "fair_value": 17.341602, "relative_strength": -1.832212, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -16.61151, "energy": 10.719442, "activity_lines": [ 17.695333, 17.631639, 17.655643, 17.864984 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.9, "volume": 628115039, "typical_volume": 372302913.55, "trend": 18.224812, "fair_value": 17.375131, "relative_strength": 1.271543, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.778714, "energy": 25.372102, "activity_lines": [ 18.182667, 17.863907, 17.756672, 17.905053 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.34, "volume": 444064465, "typical_volume": 377027768.3, "trend": 18.154612, "fair_value": 17.404511, "relative_strength": -3.851665, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.592633, "energy": 29.797471, "activity_lines": [ 18.341333, 17.95971, 17.804035, 17.912484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }