{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf488555-cd8c-4686-bce0-f8f6577832ee", "symbol": "688221", "name": "Frontier Biotechnologies Inc.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 54.948, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -25.785, "architecture_energy": 22.284, "architecture_maturity": 29.437, "architecture_confidence": 53.368, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.54, "rotation_up": 10.99, "upward_expansion": 17.99, "deceleration": 66.88, "rotation_down": 57.37, "downward_expansion": 60.32 }, "activity_lines": [ 20.378667, 21.262364, 21.082334, 21.006882 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 21.219999, "trend_reference": 21.539, "distance_from_trend": -0.01481, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.388205, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.71292, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 8.971012, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.130328, "excess_performance": -0.087124, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.01481, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044383, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.71292, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.232371, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.08971, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092915, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.130328, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.480043, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85119932, "relative_activity": 1.144194, "balance": 0.480043, "dry_up": 1.413941, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.171464, "annualized_volatility": 0.769387, "from_high_reference": -0.292195, "from_low_reference": 0.624808 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 21.539, "fair_value_reference": 12.388205, "structural_low": 16.940001, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.26087, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.239664, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.475, "worst_return": -0.086556, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.599596, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.473418, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.627826, "worst_return": -0.399446, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.46087, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.456219, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.941355, "worst_return": -0.374539, 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"typical_volume": 61816802.2, "trend": 21.205, "fair_value": 12.043077, "relative_strength": 39.405699, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 32.141733, "energy": 31.545771, "activity_lines": [ 21.906667, 21.205273, 20.755096, 21.010796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 27.299999, "volume": 143973145, "typical_volume": 67122225.55, "trend": 21.475, "fair_value": 12.15218, "relative_strength": 37.193931, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 38.29582, "energy": 53.487437, "activity_lines": [ 24.129333, 22.327273, 21.397524, 21.404022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.950001, "volume": 142555874, "typical_volume": 69030665.05, "trend": 21.498, "fair_value": 12.218141, "relative_strength": 11.602702, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 20.479048, "energy": 30.743536, "activity_lines": [ 23.668667, 22.178909, 21.41281, 21.370151 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.860001, "volume": 120081310, "typical_volume": 71602854.75, "trend": 21.479334, "fair_value": 12.276603, "relative_strength": 4.749399, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 10.051779, "energy": 21.903181, "activity_lines": [ 22.672, 21.860728, 21.325476, 21.264473 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 17.700001, "volume": 72991432, "typical_volume": 72357278.8, "trend": 21.433334, "fair_value": 12.320833, "relative_strength": -6.789115, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.231275, "energy": 16.248551, "activity_lines": [ 20.874667, 21.203637, 21.033191, 21.020646 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 21.219999, "volume": 85119932, "typical_volume": 74392888.95, "trend": 21.539, "fair_value": 12.388205, "relative_strength": 8.971012, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -25.785079, "energy": 22.28409, "activity_lines": [ 20.378667, 21.262364, 21.082334, 21.006882 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }