{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf505bf2-34b8-4628-a617-c7c93db64bae", "symbol": "QQQS", "name": "WisdomTree NASDAQ 100 3x Daily Short", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.36, "architecture_energy": 41.256, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 86.637, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.19, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 23.97, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 38.64, "downward_expansion": 64.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.798133, 1.765936, 1.83104, 2.085774 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 1.6235, "trend_reference": 2.39375, "distance_from_trend": -0.321775, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 7.382694, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.780094, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -45.792032, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.470742, "excess_performance": -0.521977, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.321775, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.148354, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.780094, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007397, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.45792, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031347, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.470742, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.640169, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2659491, "relative_activity": 0.997109, "balance": 0.640169, "dry_up": 1.263386, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.119782, "annualized_volatility": 0.579736, "from_high_reference": -0.592904, "from_low_reference": 0.031449 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.39375, "fair_value_reference": 7.382694, "structural_low": 1.574, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 47, "median_return": -0.06863, "positive_rate": 0.276596, "directional_follow_through": 0.723404, "median_excess_return": -0.063129, "regime_survival": 0.914894, "best_return": 0.349735, "worst_return": -0.247017, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": -0.164232, "positive_rate": 0.1875, "directional_follow_through": 0.8125, "median_excess_return": -0.189119, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.088589, "worst_return": -0.413527, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.277225, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.337458, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.470904, "worst_return": -0.482719, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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2509311.95, "trend": 2.535167, "fair_value": 7.77111, "relative_strength": -46.613793, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.540861, "energy": 76.338696, "activity_lines": [ 1.670233, 1.689245, 1.989186, 2.253931 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.86, "volume": 3323563, "typical_volume": 2625834.45, "trend": 2.499267, "fair_value": 7.676319, "relative_strength": -39.418344, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.289235, "energy": 60.054271, "activity_lines": [ 1.732967, 1.714873, 1.94366, 2.210372 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.901, "volume": 3712730, "typical_volume": 2625525.05, "trend": 2.468033, "fair_value": 7.586502, "relative_strength": -37.857657, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -50.363928, "energy": 49.942448, "activity_lines": [ 1.799433, 1.7481, 1.907714, 2.171774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.945, "volume": 3783042, "typical_volume": 2683112.75, "trend": 2.433467, "fair_value": 7.490909, "relative_strength": -36.013995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.791908, "energy": 36.343333, "activity_lines": [ 1.858933, 1.787964, 1.881624, 2.13803 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.6235, "volume": 2659491, "typical_volume": 2667202.1, "trend": 2.39375, "fair_value": 7.382694, "relative_strength": -45.792032, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.35972, "energy": 41.255921, "activity_lines": [ 1.798133, 1.765936, 1.83104, 2.085774 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }