{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf56cce8-3336-4fc4-bd28-fee0e957969d", "symbol": "RWC", "name": "Reliance Worldwide Corporation Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.092, "architecture_energy": 28.724, "architecture_maturity": 44.411, "architecture_confidence": 80.906, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.59, "rotation_up": 34.0, "upward_expansion": 63.48, "deceleration": 87.69, "rotation_down": 25.47, "downward_expansion": 15.81 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.634, 3.671455, 3.517857, 3.429881 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 3.69, "trend_reference": 3.407679, "distance_from_trend": 0.082849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.264807, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.134779, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.237284, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.022396, "excess_performance": -0.041309, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082849, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.023661, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.134779, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.124343, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.042373, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.131233, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.022396, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.633061, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9794707, "relative_activity": 0.833614, "balance": 1.633061, "dry_up": 0.960517, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06723, "annualized_volatility": 0.417253, "from_high_reference": -0.186717, "from_low_reference": 0.29021 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.407679, "fair_value_reference": 4.264807, "structural_low": 2.86, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.012195, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": 0.0004, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.322314, "worst_return": -0.175438, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.015163, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.011144, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.232353, "worst_return": -0.313078, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.066682, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.049298, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.222218, "worst_return": -0.282579, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.123156, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.04403, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.698912, "worst_return": -0.199254, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-02-23", "end": "2024-04-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.033838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-04-26", "end": "2024-06-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.103718, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-28", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070796, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-08-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.032755, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.070763, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.06993, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015779, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-01-17", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.053465, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-24", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.077068, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-08-01", "tenure": "Established", 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3.758667, 3.640909, 3.433476, 3.394725 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 3.61, "volume": 11612641, "typical_volume": 12573686.2, "trend": 3.426465, "fair_value": 4.270198, "relative_strength": -1.897219, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 33.107015, "energy": 39.279404, "activity_lines": [ 3.706, 3.66, 3.464429, 3.406205 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.52, "volume": 12921830, "typical_volume": 12374953.25, "trend": 3.416552, "fair_value": 4.267139, "relative_strength": -6.131135, "stage": 1, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Emerging rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 16.375323, "energy": 20.361358, "activity_lines": [ 3.632, 3.653636, 3.484476, 3.41224 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.69, "volume": 9794707, "typical_volume": 11749686.8, "trend": 3.407679, "fair_value": 4.264807, "relative_strength": -4.237284, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.092055, "energy": 28.724104, "activity_lines": [ 3.634, 3.671455, 3.517857, 3.429881 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }