{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf588706-5536-464b-bf12-ce65893cbf0b", "symbol": "NAVI", "name": "Navient Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 39.148, "architecture_energy": 31.464, "architecture_maturity": 18.505, "architecture_confidence": 53.604, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 39.9, "rotation_up": 52.18, "upward_expansion": 43.93, "deceleration": 34.81, "rotation_down": 21.55, "downward_expansion": 15.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.612667, 8.502892, 8.294785, 8.227703 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 9.08, "trend_reference": 8.397198, "distance_from_trend": 0.081313, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 12.017375, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.244427, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.246804, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.016018, "excess_performance": -0.203471, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.081313, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108889, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.244427, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.119033, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.192468, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.193804, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016018, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.759181, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9353904, "relative_activity": 1.802256, "balance": 1.759181, "dry_up": 0.990901, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.076965, "annualized_volatility": 0.359278, "from_high_reference": -0.276248, "from_low_reference": 0.323601 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.397198, "fair_value_reference": 12.017375, "structural_low": 6.860072, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.03186, "positive_rate": 0.35, "directional_follow_through": 0.35, "median_excess_return": -0.032585, "regime_survival": 0.45, "best_return": 0.116475, "worst_return": -0.224338, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.085011, "positive_rate": 0.111111, "directional_follow_through": 0.111111, "median_excess_return": -0.158364, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.280031, "worst_return": -0.36433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.204915, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.216217, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.220079, "worst_return": -0.343015, 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"energy": 16.737801, "activity_lines": [ 8.502, 8.293014, 8.143175, 8.235569 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 8.23, "volume": 3929957, "typical_volume": 5103151.5, "trend": 8.603895, "fair_value": 12.096382, "relative_strength": -24.08535, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -6.186529, "energy": 11.802107, "activity_lines": [ 8.426, 8.312154, 8.164355, 8.203594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.39, "volume": 3782844, "typical_volume": 5035055.1, "trend": 8.492413, "fair_value": 12.053398, "relative_strength": -22.243334, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 1.258607, "energy": 6.260178, "activity_lines": [ 8.394, 8.34926, 8.198573, 8.189794 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.08, "volume": 9353904, "typical_volume": 5190108.65, "trend": 8.397198, "fair_value": 12.017375, "relative_strength": -19.246804, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 39.147688, "energy": 31.463794, "activity_lines": [ 8.612667, 8.502892, 8.294785, 8.227703 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }