{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf5d84cb-5698-478f-8211-cc5b2a5f3b97", "symbol": "JG", "name": "Aurora Mobile Ltd", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -40.338, "architecture_energy": 25.808, "architecture_maturity": 83.772, "architecture_confidence": 80.087, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.71, "rotation_up": 26.71, "upward_expansion": 15.55, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 30.93, "downward_expansion": 63.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.942, 4.737316, 5.188323, 5.698754 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 5.0, "trend_reference": 6.35455, "distance_from_trend": -0.213162, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.081769, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.177871, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.559893, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.355678, "excess_performance": -0.543132, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.213162, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.086909, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.177871, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.303815, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.385599, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.056818, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.355678, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.352706, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 17533, "relative_activity": 0.577759, "balance": 1.352706, "dry_up": 1.498564, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.207762, "annualized_volatility": 0.622761, "from_high_reference": -0.548329, "from_low_reference": 0.5625 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.35455, "fair_value_reference": 6.081769, "structural_low": 3.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": -0.06455, "positive_rate": 0.378378, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.075196, "regime_survival": 0.891892, "best_return": 0.383648, "worst_return": -0.3251, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.196293, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.221574, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 1.389105, "worst_return": -0.525745, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.157863, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.235204, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.375486, "worst_return": -0.744007, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.931934, "energy": 85.099302, "activity_lines": [ 4.504827, 5.048144, 5.823373, 6.267113 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 4.41, "volume": 133606, "typical_volume": 23611.75, "trend": 6.580153, "fair_value": 6.081039, "relative_strength": -49.956574, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.674317, "energy": 77.652631, "activity_lines": [ 4.405953, 4.844269, 5.632485, 6.121855 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 3.96, "volume": 72327, "typical_volume": 26441.0, "trend": 6.48715, "fair_value": 6.074372, "relative_strength": -51.95845, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -73.681877, "energy": 64.441327, "activity_lines": [ 4.232413, 4.603849, 5.416279, 5.952813 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.8, "volume": 39202, "typical_volume": 27570.0, "trend": 6.436217, "fair_value": 6.073346, "relative_strength": -39.600498, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.250485, "energy": 52.868276, "activity_lines": [ 4.41554, 4.569247, 5.297149, 5.843965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.6, "volume": 52843, "typical_volume": 29875.9, "trend": 6.41455, "fair_value": 6.077205, "relative_strength": -28.754415, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -45.958816, "energy": 34.563259, "activity_lines": [ 4.818667, 4.705555, 5.267114, 5.790015 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.0, "volume": 17533, "typical_volume": 30346.55, "trend": 6.35455, "fair_value": 6.081769, "relative_strength": -38.559893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -40.337668, "energy": 25.808367, "activity_lines": [ 4.942, 4.737316, 5.188323, 5.698754 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }