{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf66d0f2-7d8a-473c-aa6b-b5cd340df40d", "symbol": "MDA", "name": "MDA Space Ltd.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.573, "architecture_energy": 26.021, "architecture_maturity": 45.113, "architecture_confidence": 45.874, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 50.22, "rotation_up": 17.08, "upward_expansion": 22.25, "deceleration": 63.98, "rotation_down": 59.22, "downward_expansion": 35.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 44.592667, 47.584909, 49.488523, 47.82243 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 48.220001, "trend_reference": 45.049, "distance_from_trend": 0.07039, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 26.158269, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.843394, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 9.647412, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.397681, "excess_performance": 0.27726, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.07039, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.221193, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.843394, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251827, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.096474, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.091235, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.397681, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.263464, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 5193100, "relative_activity": 1.058945, "balance": 1.263464, "dry_up": 1.150544, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.162126, "annualized_volatility": 0.794596, "from_high_reference": -0.289838, "from_low_reference": 1.31271 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 45.049, "fair_value_reference": 26.158269, "structural_low": 32.419998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.025755, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.022271, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.278031, "worst_return": -0.358871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.164724, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.130174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.425791, "worst_return": -0.19639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.33612, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.301367, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.920164, "worst_return": 0.196901, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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"amber", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095803, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.183527, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.089987, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.107764, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.147837, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.037736, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-05", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.185542, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.13833, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-07-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.120754, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-17", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.138607, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 10.25, "volume": 1335800, "typical_volume": 569605.0, "trend": 7.697, "fair_value": 10.179677, "relative_strength": 40.828811, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 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10.433554, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.249624, "energy": 27.879185, "activity_lines": [ 53.335333, 54.361999, 51.121238, 47.819806 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 42.349998, "volume": 8539100, "typical_volume": 5194825.0, "trend": 43.441333, "fair_value": 25.482372, "relative_strength": -2.203547, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 14.01265, "energy": 15.403506, "activity_lines": [ 49.501332, 52.185999, 50.600571, 47.784946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 41.720001, "volume": 4813700, "typical_volume": 5121335.0, "trend": 43.932, "fair_value": 25.697436, "relative_strength": -3.471617, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -1.664424, "energy": 15.013437, "activity_lines": [ 46.111333, 49.984727, 50.006571, 47.673892 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 42.439999, "volume": 4023300, "typical_volume": 5031625.0, "trend": 44.425667, "fair_value": 25.915961, "relative_strength": -0.632998, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -21.439684, "energy": 30.398241, "activity_lines": [ 44.120666, 48.104181, 49.474999, 47.577634 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 48.220001, "volume": 5193100, "typical_volume": 4904030.0, "trend": 45.049, "fair_value": 26.158269, "relative_strength": 9.647412, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.572935, "energy": 26.021441, "activity_lines": [ 44.592667, 47.584909, 49.488523, 47.82243 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }