{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf6bdf9a-764f-4591-b384-744d773761d1", "symbol": "XSD", "name": "State Street SPDR S&P Semiconductor ETF", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 36.914, "architecture_energy": 44.939, "architecture_maturity": 66.832, "architecture_confidence": 83.993, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 36.98, "rotation_up": 28.86, "upward_expansion": 68.0, "deceleration": 85.5, "rotation_down": 37.62, "downward_expansion": 27.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 9081.154102, 9492.765874, 9247.641459, 8578.657235 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 8675.540039, "trend_reference": 7726.037484, "distance_from_trend": 0.122896, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5053.801476, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.716636, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.384841, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.452425, "excess_performance": 0.507092, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.122896, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.209722, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.716636, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.1218, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.253848, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.064405, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.452425, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.081356, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 1.081356, "dry_up": 1.696141, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.047763, "annualized_volatility": 0.534591, "from_high_reference": -0.149408, "from_low_reference": 0.744857 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 7726.037484, "fair_value_reference": 5053.801476, "structural_low": 5914.191895, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 1.8e-05, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001167, "regime_survival": 0.357143, "best_return": 0.315361, "worst_return": -0.126806, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.041793, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.039788, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.723632, "worst_return": -0.215207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.008402, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.080192, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.287383, "worst_return": -0.331451, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 6e-05, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.183531, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.035289, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-26", 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"direction": 70.082171, "energy": 68.975762, "activity_lines": [ 10172.538412, 10055.951706, 9088.637985, 8322.580827 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9179.730469, "volume": 190, "typical_volume": 32.05, "trend": 7526.14419, "fair_value": 4989.430617, "relative_strength": 35.962378, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.005555, "energy": 62.213655, "activity_lines": [ 9859.523438, 9918.01243, 9187.441001, 8436.796264 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8675.540039, "volume": 21, "typical_volume": 31.1, "trend": 7626.090837, "fair_value": 5021.616047, "relative_strength": 26.422424, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.492798, "energy": 44.580019, "activity_lines": [ 9419.542774, 9697.573794, 9224.115868, 8510.950835 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8675.540039, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31.1, "trend": 7726.037484, "fair_value": 5053.801476, "relative_strength": 25.384841, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.914027, "energy": 44.939072, "activity_lines": [ 9081.154102, 9492.765874, 9247.641459, 8578.657235 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }