{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf774fc2-c143-4330-aaf5-0adc63a77279", "symbol": "AVRT", "name": "Avrot Industries Ltd", "exchange": "TLV", "country": "IL", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "TA35.TA", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1b", "phase_label": "Stage 1B \u00b7 Basing", "transition": "stage_1_building", "transition_label": "Base still building", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Momentum cooling", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 84.932, "architecture_energy": 81.624, "architecture_maturity": 28.0, "architecture_confidence": 80.419, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.89, "rotation_up": 70.98, "upward_expansion": 83.45, "deceleration": 53.59, "rotation_down": 16.32, "downward_expansion": 24.11 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.603867, 0.573782, 0.558838, 0.55306 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.748, "trend_reference": 0.5444, "distance_from_trend": 0.37399, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 0.544333, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.374158, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 23.051318, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.43021, "excess_performance": 0.40131, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.37399, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010769, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.374158, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.40995, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.230513, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.494541, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.43021, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 7.085216, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 87507, "relative_activity": 4.274337, "balance": 7.085216, "dry_up": 1.421531, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.046586, "annualized_volatility": 0.530525, "from_high_reference": -0.053165, "from_low_reference": 0.87 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.5444, "fair_value_reference": 0.544333, "structural_low": 0.5, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.047503, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.047637, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.104962, "worst_return": -0.187933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.067421, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.219584, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.162791, "worst_return": -0.207715, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.001642, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.318255, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.065891, "worst_return": -0.184965, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.175742, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.355759, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.162562, "worst_return": -0.188922, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.015504, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.176829, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.15512, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-01-02", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.026365, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-01-09", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074468, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.051625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.049724, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065217, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-04-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-01", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.01938, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": 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-12.241961, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.62766, "energy": 27.644025, "activity_lines": [ 0.535, 0.542745, 0.541071, 0.539826 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.535, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 16282.15, "trend": 0.5348, "fair_value": 0.544282, "relative_strength": -14.069963, "stage": 4, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 10.969708, "energy": 22.764159, "activity_lines": [ 0.535, 0.5406, 0.540357, 0.53983 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.527, "volume": 28903, "typical_volume": 16997.3, "trend": 0.535133, "fair_value": 0.543564, "relative_strength": -12.785477, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -35.190599, "energy": 31.151188, "activity_lines": [ 0.532333, 0.536836, 0.539, 0.539327 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.748, "volume": 87507, "typical_volume": 20472.65, "trend": 0.5444, "fair_value": 0.544333, "relative_strength": 23.051318, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 84.932404, "energy": 81.623719, "activity_lines": [ 0.603867, 0.573782, 0.558838, 0.55306 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }