{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf7c586b-6c04-45c8-8ecb-c76c9e1a51a4", "symbol": "XELB", "name": "Xcel Brands Inc", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -74.522, "architecture_energy": 79.437, "architecture_maturity": 26.0, "architecture_confidence": 81.732, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.62, "rotation_up": 8.4, "upward_expansion": 17.52, "deceleration": 37.07, "rotation_down": 82.2, "downward_expansion": 95.52 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.211, 1.416909, 1.678838, 1.712421 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -1.0 }, "latest_close": 1.095, "trend_reference": 1.717033, "distance_from_trend": -0.362272, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.1786, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.788553, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -38.168377, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.324074, "excess_performance": -0.511528, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.362272, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.109228, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.788553, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160376, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.381684, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.581995, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.324074, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.035863, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 300231, "relative_activity": 0.255992, "balance": 0.035863, "dry_up": 0.193162, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.323527, "annualized_volatility": 1.089866, "from_high_reference": -0.58833, "from_low_reference": 0.487368 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.717033, "fair_value_reference": 5.1786, "structural_low": 1.03, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.047297, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.113503, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.477273, "worst_return": -0.168493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.2, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.128561, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.22549, "worst_return": -0.320187, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.339851, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.464213, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.259804, "worst_return": -0.535, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.365133, 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"2025-10-03", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.415966, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.325397, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.592472, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.038462, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.148148, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.097902, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": 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"activity_lines": [ 1.753, 1.876544, 1.912476, 1.845978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.29, "volume": 202397, "typical_volume": 1170110.05, "trend": 1.723533, "fair_value": 5.512414, "relative_strength": -25.177945, "stage": 1, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.914703, "energy": 42.191963, "activity_lines": [ 1.582667, 1.751091, 1.860828, 1.818202 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.23, "volume": 286748, "typical_volume": 1177122.2, "trend": 1.718867, "fair_value": 5.407478, "relative_strength": -26.953106, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.107129, "energy": 57.727359, "activity_lines": [ 1.428, 1.632909, 1.804133, 1.786361 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.2, "volume": 116794, "typical_volume": 1176265.55, "trend": 1.7222, "fair_value": 5.302991, "relative_strength": -28.985984, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -46.205092, "energy": 66.337811, "activity_lines": [ 1.317333, 1.525273, 1.745961, 1.752886 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.095, "volume": 300231, "typical_volume": 1172813.55, "trend": 1.717033, "fair_value": 5.1786, "relative_strength": -38.168377, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.521664, "energy": 79.437281, "activity_lines": [ 1.211, 1.416909, 1.678838, 1.712421 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }