{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "bf825238-72fe-4ba1-b9e9-17e13c43bd3f",
    "symbol": "IJPE",
    "name": "iShares MSCI Japan EUR Hedged UCITS ETF (Acc)",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 93.802,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 53.608,
    "architecture_energy": 30.344,
    "architecture_maturity": 57.337,
    "architecture_confidence": 78.914,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 23.81,
        "rotation_up": 39.35,
        "upward_expansion": 63.29,
        "deceleration": 82.62,
        "rotation_down": 26.83,
        "downward_expansion": 19.96
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        141.044002,
        141.441819,
        139.510857,
        136.9143
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.666667
    },
    "latest_close": 143.580002,
    "trend_reference": 133.762666,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.073394,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 99.588205,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.441737,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -0.776326,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.099893,
    "excess_performance": -0.070999,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.073394,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.063663,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.441737,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.003771,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.007763,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.05564,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.099893,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 2.285777,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 30144,
      "relative_activity": 0.545257,
      "balance": 2.285777,
      "dry_up": 1.082049,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 1
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.034684,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.194133,
      "from_high_reference": -0.017383,
      "from_low_reference": 0.393304
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 133.762666,
      "fair_value_reference": 99.588205,
      "structural_low": 119.760002,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 9,
        "median_return": 0.02518,
        "positive_rate": 0.777778,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.777778,
        "median_excess_return": -0.008667,
        "regime_survival": 0.111111,
        "best_return": 0.075066,
        "worst_return": -0.027993,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.019317,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.025247,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.159839,
        "worst_return": -0.095886,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.103332,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": -0.017532,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.218746,
        "worst_return": -0.036226,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.025967,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": 0.123541,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.457028,
        "worst_return": -0.038202,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-24",
        "end": "2024-07-26",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.008485,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-08-02",
        "end": "2024-08-16",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.094368,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2024-08-23",
        "end": "2024-09-27",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.009209,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2024-10-04",
        "end": "2024-12-06",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.007326,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-12-13",
        "end": "2025-02-28",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.016971,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-03-07",
        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013482,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2025-04-04",
        "end": "2025-04-11",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.013216,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2025-04-18",
        "end": "2025-05-02",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.059431,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
        "start": "2025-05-09",
        "end": "2025-05-30",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.017751,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
        "start": "2025-06-06",
        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": -0.009708,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2025-06-27",
        "end": "2026-03-20",
        "tenure": "Extended",
        "return": 0.253257,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-03-27",
        "end": "2026-04-17",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.09125,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2026-04-24",
        "end": "2026-07-31",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.066276,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2026-08-07",
        "end": "2026-08-07",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": true
      }
    ],
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
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        "fair_value": 93.332372,
        "relative_strength": 3.625962,
        "stage": 2,
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      },
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        "date": "2026-05-08",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
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        "typical_volume": 70852.55,
        "trend": 124.175665,
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        "relative_strength": 5.381691,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
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        "typical_volume": 72464.15,
        "trend": 124.981999,
        "fair_value": 94.659487,
        "relative_strength": 5.081814,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
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        "volume": 90133,
        "typical_volume": 74265.45,
        "trend": 125.756665,
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        "relative_strength": 5.106407,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
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        "typical_volume": 71742.35,
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        "relative_strength": 5.098934,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
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        "typical_volume": 69272.1,
        "trend": 127.360332,
        "fair_value": 95.97141,
        "relative_strength": 2.152445,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
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        "relative_strength": 3.784304,
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        "direction": 67.303295,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
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        "volume": 1934,
        "typical_volume": 60350.65,
        "trend": 130.175665,
        "fair_value": 97.362948,
        "relative_strength": 1.68161,
        "stage": 2,
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        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 143.699997,
        "volume": 67618,
        "typical_volume": 60946.8,
        "trend": 131.050998,
        "fair_value": 97.834423,
        "relative_strength": 2.07867,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 70.898507,
        "energy": 79.142122,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 137.820007,
        "volume": 116549,
        "typical_volume": 64948.05,
        "trend": 131.698665,
        "fair_value": 98.25891,
        "relative_strength": -0.915611,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Re-accelerating",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 62.155251,
        "energy": 49.092072,
        "activity_lines": [
          141.533333,
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          137.71038,
          135.217719
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 141.660004,
        "volume": 43997,
        "typical_volume": 57880.6,
        "trend": 132.474665,
        "fair_value": 98.70032,
        "relative_strength": 1.797447,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 52.750552,
        "energy": 41.542648,
        "activity_lines": [
          141.270669,
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          138.424952,
          135.860386
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 138.360001,
        "volume": 48590,
        "typical_volume": 57455.75,
        "trend": 133.129665,
        "fair_value": 99.129872,
        "relative_strength": -1.417833,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 44.362917,
        "energy": 29.234647,
        "activity_lines": [
          140.176002,
          140.953818,
          138.751571,
          136.240085
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 143.580002,
        "volume": 30144,
        "typical_volume": 55284.0,
        "trend": 133.762666,
        "fair_value": 99.588205,
        "relative_strength": -0.776326,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 53.607961,
        "energy": 30.344272,
        "activity_lines": [
          141.044002,
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          139.510857,
          136.9143
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}