{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf879ace-9871-41ff-8792-f7c1cccdc510", "symbol": "ASMS", "name": "Avio Smart Market Stack Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -59.366, "architecture_energy": 46.526, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 94.675, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.78, "rotation_up": 28.05, "upward_expansion": 7.26, "deceleration": 55.14, "rotation_down": 47.78, "downward_expansion": 80.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.124667, 7.166, 7.351524, 7.73486 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.25, "trend_reference": 8.546667, "distance_from_trend": -0.151716, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.527628, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.53309, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -29.612143, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.507138, "excess_performance": -0.463429, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.151716, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.161626, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.53309, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.040143, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.296121, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.020285, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.507138, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.730566, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1191505, "relative_activity": 0.265809, "balance": 0.730566, "dry_up": 0.163596, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.063236, "annualized_volatility": 0.520999, "from_high_reference": -0.588068, "from_low_reference": 0.050725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.546667, "fair_value_reference": 15.527628, "structural_low": 6.9, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 25, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.48, "directional_follow_through": 0.48, "median_excess_return": -0.021126, "regime_survival": 0.88, "best_return": 0.448718, "worst_return": -0.30303, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.003182, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.555556, "median_excess_return": -0.071053, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.411765, "worst_return": -0.210923, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.123711, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.15548, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.917647, "worst_return": -0.195777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-05-17", "end": "2024-06-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.234335, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.128177, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-07-19", "end": "2024-08-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.249292, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.300568, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-10-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.174334, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": 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"2026-07-17", "close": 7.23, "volume": 589871, "typical_volume": 6255352.95, "trend": 9.030333, "fair_value": 15.614936, "relative_strength": -31.355484, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.545386, "energy": 58.107165, "activity_lines": [ 7.188667, 7.267818, 7.510095, 8.076581 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.0, "volume": 472984, "typical_volume": 5234433.4, "trend": 8.856, "fair_value": 15.579038, "relative_strength": -31.21645, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.143099, "energy": 64.725375, "activity_lines": [ 7.102, 7.208364, 7.439381, 7.945591 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.03, "volume": 678949, "typical_volume": 4768997.2, "trend": 8.690333, "fair_value": 15.550705, "relative_strength": -31.920697, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.12871, "energy": 57.968957, "activity_lines": [ 7.07, 7.164727, 7.381143, 7.827785 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.25, "volume": 1191505, "typical_volume": 4482553.45, "trend": 8.546667, "fair_value": 15.527628, "relative_strength": -29.612143, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.365958, "energy": 46.526474, "activity_lines": [ 7.124667, 7.166, 7.351524, 7.73486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }