{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf89f2f2-f6bb-4ad5-bf83-4bb2a07f0a1e", "symbol": "PYS", "name": "PaySauce Limited", "exchange": "NZE", "country": "NZ", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NZ50", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -69.767, "architecture_energy": 72.566, "architecture_maturity": 37.154, "architecture_confidence": 80.289, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.82, "rotation_up": 12.37, "upward_expansion": 17.33, "deceleration": 35.2, "rotation_down": 74.01, "downward_expansion": 88.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.221333, 0.228818, 0.235833, 0.242398 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.215, "trend_reference": 0.249833, "distance_from_trend": -0.139426, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.227474, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.054839, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.293596, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.173077, "excess_performance": -0.20135, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.139426, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.06371, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.054839, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108863, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.172936, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.182382, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.173077, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.759556, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 59466, "relative_activity": 1.34692, "balance": 0.759556, "dry_up": 1.35995, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.080501, "annualized_volatility": 0.553967, "from_high_reference": -0.367647, "from_low_reference": 0.228571 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.249833, "fair_value_reference": 0.227474, "structural_low": 0.2, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 26, "median_return": -0.012708, "positive_rate": 0.346154, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.019566, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.467391, "worst_return": -0.188679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.029172, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": 0.007858, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.227273, "worst_return": -0.190476, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.045455, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.026748, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.764706, "worst_return": -0.209302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"color": "blue", "start": "2024-09-06", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.022222, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.106977, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.095238, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.596859, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.083333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 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4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -11.568268, "energy": 10.6011, "activity_lines": [ 0.247333, 0.244091, 0.24831, 0.251871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 0.21, "volume": 133541, "typical_volume": 44507.05, "trend": 0.255167, "fair_value": 0.227635, "relative_strength": -18.170572, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -77.838688, "energy": 45.607757, "activity_lines": [ 0.235667, 0.238273, 0.244238, 0.248817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.22, "volume": 22994, "typical_volume": 41946.75, "trend": 0.253, "fair_value": 0.227506, "relative_strength": -14.793229, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.35849, "energy": 45.346521, "activity_lines": [ 0.229667, 0.234818, 0.24131, 0.246548 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.225, "volume": 24164, "typical_volume": 41925.0, "trend": 0.251333, "fair_value": 0.227538, "relative_strength": -12.590008, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.665719, "energy": 43.896052, "activity_lines": [ 0.227, 0.232636, 0.238976, 0.244742 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.215, "volume": 59466, "typical_volume": 44149.6, "trend": 0.249833, "fair_value": 0.227474, "relative_strength": -17.293596, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.766835, "energy": 72.566331, "activity_lines": [ 0.221333, 0.228818, 0.235833, 0.242398 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }