{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf8fd712-3749-4b01-89aa-f171dd610864", "symbol": "LEVE3", "name": "MAHLE Metal Leve S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 80.36, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -57.809, "architecture_energy": 59.678, "architecture_maturity": 4.043, "architecture_confidence": 79.971, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.74, "rotation_up": 11.37, "upward_expansion": 13.05, "deceleration": 37.83, "rotation_down": 65.04, "downward_expansion": 86.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.810667, 32.142909, 32.643787, 32.835564 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 32.110001, "trend_reference": 32.951588, "distance_from_trend": -0.02554, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.995378, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.146975, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 0.759289, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.006072, "excess_performance": 0.050976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.02554, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013882, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.146975, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.096594, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.007593, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.010677, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.006072, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.754621, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1432600, "relative_activity": 1.148022, "balance": 0.754621, "dry_up": 0.971904, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039216, "annualized_volatility": 0.179686, "from_high_reference": -0.113228, "from_low_reference": 0.323815 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 32.951588, "fair_value_reference": 27.995378, "structural_low": 31.139999, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.022955, "positive_rate": 0.5625, "directional_follow_through": 0.4375, "median_excess_return": 0.011299, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.186107, "worst_return": -0.1559, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.064032, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.019857, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.294939, "worst_return": -0.149233, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.011953, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.018805, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.29456, "worst_return": -0.096302, "sufficient": 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33.186325 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 32.599998, "volume": 946800, "typical_volume": 1407200.0, "trend": 32.949874, "fair_value": 27.953509, "relative_strength": -1.29067, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -12.64162, "energy": 9.076658, "activity_lines": [ 32.885333, 32.928182, 33.205262, 33.164774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 31.4, "volume": 1210900, "typical_volume": 1375120.0, "trend": 32.942901, "fair_value": 27.965096, "relative_strength": -2.479871, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -38.27949, "energy": 36.311632, "activity_lines": [ 32.363333, 32.624, 33.026509, 33.064782 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 31.23, "volume": 1081500, "typical_volume": 1322245.0, "trend": 32.909541, "fair_value": 27.97647, "relative_strength": -3.036055, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.612761, "energy": 53.093657, "activity_lines": [ 31.896666, 32.344, 32.844178, 32.954273 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 31.88, "volume": 1126300, "typical_volume": 1277025.0, "trend": 32.920452, "fair_value": 27.984415, "relative_strength": -3.044706, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.214651, "energy": 59.214739, "activity_lines": [ 31.764666, 32.217636, 32.731701, 32.887851 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.110001, "volume": 1432600, "typical_volume": 1247885.0, "trend": 32.951588, "fair_value": 27.995378, "relative_strength": 0.759289, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -57.80904, "energy": 59.67806, "activity_lines": [ 31.810667, 32.142909, 32.643787, 32.835564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }