{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf93bd02-bea5-4995-aced-1fcf3d101cac", "symbol": "CPII", "name": "AMERICAN BEACON IONIC INFLATION PROTECTION ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 85.704, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -15.336, "architecture_energy": 17.471, "architecture_maturity": 26.781, "architecture_confidence": 75.892, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.06, "rotation_up": 20.5, "upward_expansion": 19.67, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 46.63, "downward_expansion": 35.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.850029, 18.859327, 18.920782, 18.908418 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 18.9, "trend_reference": 18.853996, "distance_from_trend": 0.00244, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 18.111745, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.043522, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.286449, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.01542, "excess_performance": -0.110205, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.00244, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005978, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.043522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.014866, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.102864, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.005838, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.01542, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.815333, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1321, "relative_activity": 0.284272, "balance": 3.815333, "dry_up": 0.288254, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.006442, "annualized_volatility": 0.035932, "from_high_reference": -0.017642, "from_low_reference": 0.022427 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.853996, "fair_value_reference": 18.111745, "structural_low": 18.48543, "invalidation": "A 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.000247, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-11-07", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.001313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "New", "return": -8e-06, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-01-09", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001297, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-01-16", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.001324, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 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4326.35, "trend": 18.773118, "fair_value": 18.009139, "relative_strength": -8.272836, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.55788, "energy": 41.452763, "activity_lines": [ 19.064367, 19.051091, 18.974216, 18.885322 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 18.943891, "volume": 4739, "typical_volume": 4550.2, "trend": 18.786121, "fair_value": 18.023683, "relative_strength": -8.997312, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.45317, "energy": 30.296662, "activity_lines": [ 19.017871, 19.036694, 18.979801, 18.89634 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 18.85953, "volume": 5312, "typical_volume": 4756.8, "trend": 18.796772, "fair_value": 18.03733, "relative_strength": -6.911912, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.057011, "energy": 18.762896, "activity_lines": [ 18.958049, 19.005789, 18.976243, 18.901076 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 18.79177, "volume": 662, "typical_volume": 4761.45, "trend": 18.803864, "fair_value": 18.049119, "relative_strength": -8.921165, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -5.653679, "energy": 20.638817, "activity_lines": [ 18.888862, 18.963199, 18.965057, 18.900753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 18.836465, "volume": 1309, "typical_volume": 4766.4, "trend": 18.812772, "fair_value": 18.062842, "relative_strength": -9.614869, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.626691, "energy": 23.416558, "activity_lines": [ 18.854279, 18.933377, 18.95709, 18.902856 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 18.85633, "volume": 320, "typical_volume": 4775.9, "trend": 18.823321, "fair_value": 18.076226, "relative_strength": -7.796655, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.093182, "energy": 23.045658, "activity_lines": [ 18.844385, 18.910385, 18.949628, 18.905666 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.871228, "volume": 215, "typical_volume": 4423.1, "trend": 18.834366, "fair_value": 18.088662, "relative_strength": -6.923173, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": -0.153262, "energy": 20.890684, "activity_lines": [ 18.848928, 18.892338, 18.942473, 18.908757 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.771906, "volume": 3502, "typical_volume": 4590.15, "trend": 18.842793, "fair_value": 18.100109, "relative_strength": -8.092977, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.066842, "energy": 38.701804, "activity_lines": [ 18.825209, 18.861589, 18.925402, 18.904728 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.9, "volume": 1321, "typical_volume": 4646.95, "trend": 18.853996, "fair_value": 18.111745, "relative_strength": -10.286449, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -15.335749, "energy": 17.470928, "activity_lines": [ 18.850029, 18.859327, 18.920782, 18.908418 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }