{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf990b42-120a-408c-b478-5089cec2a130", "symbol": "TFM", "name": "Thai Union Feedmill Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 68.072, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 38.347, "architecture_energy": 20.695, "architecture_maturity": 34.689, "architecture_confidence": 49.459, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 51.84, "rotation_up": 33.73, "upward_expansion": 57.51, "deceleration": 65.25, "rotation_down": 23.73, "downward_expansion": 6.18 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.55, 6.55, 6.541429, 6.506278 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 6.55, "trend_reference": 6.417985, "distance_from_trend": 0.02057, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 4.273996, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.532524, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.485841, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.079848, "excess_performance": -0.112477, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.02057, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.050629, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.532524, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092802, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.064858, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.074822, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.079848, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.387194, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 7227200, "relative_activity": 2.361633, "balance": 0.387194, "dry_up": 1.379044, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.021726, "annualized_volatility": 0.133067, "from_high_reference": -0.057554, "from_low_reference": 0.269821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.417985, "fair_value_reference": 4.273996, "structural_low": 5.9, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.03125, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.013128, "regime_survival": 0.4, "best_return": 0.106918, "worst_return": -0.007576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.155173, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.047932, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269317, "worst_return": 0.050789, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.143737, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.053621, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.269317, "worst_return": 0.018156, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"2024-07-26", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.028631, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018868, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.108974, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.062864, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.056, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.004065, "active": false }, { "regime": 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6.528182, 6.523333, 6.45368 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.55, "volume": 3407800, "typical_volume": 3278995.0, "trend": 6.332935, "fair_value": 4.208344, "relative_strength": -7.950028, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.270201, "energy": 29.591738, "activity_lines": [ 6.56, 6.535455, 6.52881, 6.46965 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.55, "volume": 3212400, "typical_volume": 3050215.0, "trend": 6.360224, "fair_value": 4.230905, "relative_strength": -8.311018, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 47.42018, "energy": 27.262971, "activity_lines": [ 6.556667, 6.541818, 6.53381, 6.483654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.55, "volume": 3033500, "typical_volume": 2878870.0, "trend": 6.389104, "fair_value": 4.252324, "relative_strength": -7.274257, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.909559, "energy": 24.135946, "activity_lines": [ 6.553333, 6.546364, 6.538095, 6.495898 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.55, "volume": 7227200, "typical_volume": 3060255.0, "trend": 6.417985, "fair_value": 4.273996, "relative_strength": -6.485841, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.346819, "energy": 20.695274, "activity_lines": [ 6.55, 6.55, 6.541429, 6.506278 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }