{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bf9d5571-5549-4619-beb6-15e748795870", "symbol": "VIXL", "name": "WisdomTree S&P 500 VIX Short-Term Futures 2.25x Daily Leveraged", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -81.581, "architecture_energy": 74.265, "architecture_maturity": 71.062, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 5.06, "rotation_up": 29.3, "upward_expansion": 13.59, "deceleration": 46.55, "rotation_down": 61.63, "downward_expansion": 89.26 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.929087, 0.994011, 1.247736, 1.574289 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 0.8061, "trend_reference": 1.89062, "distance_from_trend": -0.573632, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.432955, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.914544, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -76.236247, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.626287, "excess_performance": -0.797178, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.573632, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.273191, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.914544, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.108147, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.762362, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051041, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.626287, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.270866, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6169785, "relative_activity": 2.072334, "balance": 0.270866, "dry_up": 1.467956, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.247765, "annualized_volatility": 0.991522, "from_high_reference": -0.884843, "from_low_reference": 0.002487 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.89062, "fair_value_reference": 9.432955, "structural_low": 0.8041, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 54, "median_return": -0.133082, "positive_rate": 0.277778, "directional_follow_through": 0.703704, "median_excess_return": -0.162832, "regime_survival": 0.907407, "best_return": 3532.766104, "worst_return": -0.501279, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": -0.355826, "positive_rate": 0.222222, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": -0.3869, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 4128.220779, "worst_return": -0.759124, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.61987, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.9, "median_excess_return": -0.70955, "regime_survival": 0.9, "best_return": 2334.064935, "worst_return": -0.860234, "sufficient": true }, { 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"relative_strength": -76.705434, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.46336, "energy": 91.444216, "activity_lines": [ 1.052407, 1.189229, 1.605971, 1.841653 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.0242, "volume": 5186373, "typical_volume": 3311575.9, "trend": 2.00483, "fair_value": 9.41623, "relative_strength": -73.102276, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.009618, "energy": 87.477854, "activity_lines": [ 1.022707, 1.132885, 1.512077, 1.775387 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.9969, "volume": 2096648, "typical_volume": 3041650.45, "trend": 1.965343, "fair_value": 9.422275, "relative_strength": -72.546944, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.90949, "energy": 87.583313, "activity_lines": [ 1.005227, 1.08584, 1.421252, 1.710359 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.98, "volume": 4028870, "typical_volume": 2925615.9, "trend": 1.929843, "fair_value": 9.428189, "relative_strength": -71.590452, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.559352, "energy": 85.193251, "activity_lines": [ 0.98916, 1.050371, 1.3372, 1.646789 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.8061, "volume": 6169785, "typical_volume": 2977214.9, "trend": 1.89062, "fair_value": 9.432955, "relative_strength": -76.236247, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -81.580948, "energy": 74.264608, "activity_lines": [ 0.929087, 0.994011, 1.247736, 1.574289 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }