{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfa37ebe-8823-4455-8296-972f2df07f8c", "symbol": "INCY", "name": "Incyte Corporation", "exchange": "MEX", "country": "MX", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^MXX", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 78.108, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 67.333, "architecture_energy": 88.565, "architecture_maturity": 15.576, "architecture_confidence": 77.331, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.89, "rotation_up": 78.83, "upward_expansion": 95.33, "deceleration": 44.67, "rotation_down": 8.0, "downward_expansion": 22.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 2042.2, 1945.153644, 1835.145014, 1802.008408 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 2036.0, "trend_reference": 1778.637358, "distance_from_trend": 0.144697, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1478.374678, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.377188, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 13.818809, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.147527, "excess_performance": 0.202194, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.144697, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001298, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.377188, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.254804, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.138188, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.216262, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.147527, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.024887, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.024887, "dry_up": 4.783461, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.018362, "annualized_volatility": 0.313733, "from_high_reference": -0.014998, "from_low_reference": 0.558577 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1778.637358, "fair_value_reference": 1478.374678, "structural_low": 1642.0, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.019161, "regime_survival": 0.6875, "best_return": 0.217917, "worst_return": -0.373493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006133, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.008758, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.285289, "worst_return": -0.373493, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.042058, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.100531, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.237277, "worst_return": -0.315965, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 0, "typical_volume": 31.6, "trend": 1737.951017, "fair_value": 1464.93237, "relative_strength": -3.769347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.524691, "energy": 52.797724, "activity_lines": [ 1676.030029, 1669.842751, 1685.645505, 1707.571103 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 2067.0, "volume": 216, "typical_volume": 22.1, "trend": 1745.214685, "fair_value": 1467.740063, "relative_strength": 18.980834, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 55.779402, "energy": 62.646323, "activity_lines": [ 1806.353353, 1743.403111, 1720.307501, 1728.800069 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2067.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 22.1, "trend": 1755.633354, "fair_value": 1470.547755, "relative_strength": 18.055837, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 67.531456, "energy": 68.601196, "activity_lines": [ 1910.612012, 1809.236199, 1753.429879, 1749.560412 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2036.0, "volume": 9764, "typical_volume": 510.3, "trend": 1765.018689, "fair_value": 1473.156729, "relative_strength": 16.055452, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Value reclamation", "gate": "up", "direction": 89.56666, "energy": 92.613936, "activity_lines": [ 1978.472672, 1861.705651, 1782.060257, 1767.648583 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2036.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 510.3, "trend": 1774.404024, "fair_value": 1475.765704, "relative_strength": 14.474085, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.198503, "energy": 91.669161, "activity_lines": [ 2022.335335, 1907.011466, 1809.298636, 1785.131248 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2036.0, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 510.3, "trend": 1778.637358, "fair_value": 1478.374678, "relative_strength": 13.818809, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.33254, "energy": 88.564955, "activity_lines": [ 2042.2, 1945.153644, 1835.145014, 1802.008408 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }