{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfa6f764-ed37-45dd-9864-59136f8516c7", "symbol": "WDMVO", "name": "UBS Factor MSCI World Selection Minimum Volatility UCITS ETF USD acc", "exchange": "EBS", "country": "CH", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SSMI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.1, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 93.055, "architecture_energy": 93.566, "architecture_maturity": 26.46, "architecture_confidence": 66.638, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.58, "rotation_up": 83.45, "upward_expansion": 96.6, "deceleration": 42.42, "rotation_down": 10.73, "downward_expansion": 20.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 153.770663, 152.441452, 150.583999, 149.297075 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 156.339996, "trend_reference": 148.084, "distance_from_trend": 0.055752, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 142.022805, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.100809, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.809518, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.062237, "excess_performance": -0.020647, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.055752, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013973, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.100809, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.05524, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.038095, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.021584, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.062237, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.294931, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1235, "relative_activity": 6.851595, "balance": 2.294931, "dry_up": 2.320388, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.010923, "annualized_volatility": 0.08764, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.111474 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 148.084, "fair_value_reference": 142.022805, "structural_low": 140.660004, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.000267, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.015959, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.012436, "worst_return": -0.024633, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.01742, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.00493, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.01742, "worst_return": 0.01742, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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151.779999, "volume": 292, "typical_volume": 122.0, "trend": 147.338001, "fair_value": 141.666123, "relative_strength": -5.934586, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.015467, "energy": 88.596146, "activity_lines": [ 151.459999, 150.520727, 148.830477, 148.086323 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 151.419998, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 122.0, "trend": 147.514001, "fair_value": 141.763661, "relative_strength": -5.821727, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.38848, "energy": 86.661155, "activity_lines": [ 151.705332, 150.805818, 149.216667, 148.349678 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 153.619995, "volume": 146, "typical_volume": 125.65, "trend": 147.761334, "fair_value": 141.881051, "relative_strength": -4.371041, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.505039, "energy": 90.276129, "activity_lines": [ 152.419997, 151.413089, 149.791143, 148.743613 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 156.339996, "volume": 1235, "typical_volume": 180.25, "trend": 148.084, "fair_value": 142.022805, "relative_strength": -3.809518, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 93.055017, "energy": 93.566409, "activity_lines": [ 153.770663, 152.441452, 150.583999, 149.297075 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }