{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfad4c31-1073-49ed-9c81-b04f53a38a75", "symbol": "MPP", "name": "Metro Performance Glass Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_up", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Up", "architecture_modifier": "Structural repair", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 6.898, "architecture_energy": 39.985, "architecture_maturity": 43.488, "architecture_confidence": 37.745, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating upward.", "body": "Fast Activity is improving relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is strengthening. This is earlier than full positive Trend confirmation and remains a developing repair." }, "scores": { "balance": 42.24, "rotation_up": 50.32, "upward_expansion": 44.04, "deceleration": 44.5, "rotation_down": 14.0, "downward_expansion": 50.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.023667, 1.007, 0.95531, 1.011925 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.985, "trend_reference": 1.150167, "distance_from_trend": -0.143602, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 2.319511, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.575341, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -26.199746, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.41369, "excess_performance": -0.477396, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.143602, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.131731, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.575341, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.081523, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.261997, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.141526, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.41369, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.776982, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2539, "relative_activity": 4.229904, "balance": 1.776982, "dry_up": 1.810079, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0328, "annualized_volatility": 1.115598, "from_high_reference": -0.452778, "from_low_reference": 0.262821 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.150167, "fair_value_reference": 2.319511, "structural_low": 0.78, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.005169, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.075, "worst_return": -0.276317, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.200815, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.178361, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.035712, "worst_return": -0.5, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.418976, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.453369, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.130951, "worst_return": -0.507697, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.307694, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.325638, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.223266, "worst_return": -0.404763, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-06-07", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.156625, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.014288, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100282, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108108, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-23", "end": "2026-03-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.075, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-20", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.125, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.13587, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 4.4288, "volume": 41, "typical_volume": 150.1, "trend": 4.8717, "fair_value": 8.978313, "relative_strength": -15.932893, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.185578, "energy": 43.160136, "activity_lines": [ 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"stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.490632, "energy": 64.418354, "activity_lines": [ 0.982667, 0.932727, 0.930667, 1.055054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.05, "volume": 1417, "typical_volume": 1130.65, "trend": 1.207667, "fair_value": 2.372802, "relative_strength": -18.374684, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -3.291637, "energy": 41.884089, "activity_lines": [ 1.012667, 0.960364, 0.93381, 1.043699 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.045, "volume": 14, "typical_volume": 1131.35, "trend": 1.189167, "fair_value": 2.355166, "relative_strength": -18.209084, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 13.309758, "energy": 47.24817, "activity_lines": [ 1.029667, 0.984, 0.939667, 1.033204 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.045, "volume": 376, "typical_volume": 1150.15, "trend": 1.170667, "fair_value": 2.337531, "relative_strength": -19.680219, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 14.188558, "energy": 47.922617, "activity_lines": [ 1.04, 1.003182, 0.948738, 1.023903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.985, "volume": 2539, "typical_volume": 600.25, "trend": 1.150167, "fair_value": 2.319511, "relative_strength": -26.199746, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_up", "modifier": "Structural repair", "gate": "down", "direction": 6.89758, "energy": 39.985396, "activity_lines": [ 1.023667, 1.007, 0.95531, 1.011925 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }