{ "ticker": { "uuid": "bfb24add-b85d-47e8-b2f7-70202b849daf", "symbol": "TNOW", "name": "Amundi MSCI World Information Technology UCITS ETF EUR Acc", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 65.069, "architecture_energy": 42.072, "architecture_maturity": 73.021, "architecture_confidence": 88.906, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.83, "rotation_up": 42.37, "upward_expansion": 62.97, "deceleration": 85.41, "rotation_down": 27.39, "downward_expansion": 21.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 1161.496013, 1161.581636, 1142.031807, 1095.879311 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 1208.180054, "trend_reference": 1039.389333, "distance_from_trend": 0.162394, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 827.101611, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.46074, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 4.154759, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.316301, "excess_performance": 0.145409, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.162394, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.070369, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.46074, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.053028, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.041548, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.007109, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.316301, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.156549, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 3034, "relative_activity": 1.804771, "balance": 2.156549, "dry_up": 1.450538, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.04254, "annualized_volatility": 0.241911, "from_high_reference": -6.6e-05, "from_low_reference": 0.411013 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1039.389333, "fair_value_reference": 827.101611, "structural_low": 856.25, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.014086, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.02389, "regime_survival": 0.363636, "best_return": 0.100616, "worst_return": -0.143058, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.039023, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.000805, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.173595, "worst_return": -0.127662, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.128376, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.046822, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.288468, "worst_return": -0.019936, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"fair_value": 812.004881, "relative_strength": 4.092454, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.351997, "energy": 63.237299, "activity_lines": [ 1170.76665, 1167.385804, 1108.504757, 1062.146815 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1132.459961, "volume": 3461, "typical_volume": 1891.6, "trend": 1019.393665, "fair_value": 815.597445, "relative_strength": 1.219371, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 50.405497, "energy": 47.931236, "activity_lines": [ 1158.403312, 1162.759981, 1116.496992, 1069.832189 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1152.75, "volume": 1657, "typical_volume": 1757.95, "trend": 1025.88233, "fair_value": 819.266739, "relative_strength": 3.112187, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.466556, "energy": 44.867512, "activity_lines": [ 1154.351986, 1161.119984, 1125.360754, 1078.435823 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1119.380005, "volume": 1602, "typical_volume": 1608.35, "trend": 1031.303664, "fair_value": 822.835906, "relative_strength": -0.55498, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.442557, "energy": 33.240872, "activity_lines": [ 1142.291992, 1153.007624, 1129.944183, 1084.467931 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1208.180054, "volume": 3034, "typical_volume": 1681.1, "trend": 1039.389333, "fair_value": 827.101611, "relative_strength": 4.154759, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.068602, "energy": 42.071853, "activity_lines": [ 1161.496013, 1161.581636, 1142.031807, 1095.879311 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }